Are the Maldives, the Seychelles and Mauritius dependent on the Bosporus-Gulf carriers? – Dependency Analysis and Mitigation Measures

Abstract

Bosporus-Gulf (BoGu) carriers have significantly been growing into tourism destinations such as the Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius. Their high market share is driving the growth in the local tourism industry but, at the same time, the dependency on these carriers may constitute a major risk. This paper examines the impact of BoGu carrier arrivals on the local tourism industry drawing on multiple linear regression analysis and finds that all countries are dependent on the BoGu carriers. However, the Seychelles and the Maldives are showing a higher effect size than Mauritius. We investigate reasons for these findings and perform a moderation analysis to identify levers to manage the risks of changes in BoGu carrier capacity.