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On the difference between operational and research simulations with CTIPe

Fernandez Gomez, Isabel and Fedrizzi, Mariangel and Codrescu, Mihail and Borries, Claudia and Fillion, Martin and Fuller-Rowell, Timothy (2019) On the difference between operational and research simulations with CTIPe. Advances in Space Research. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2019.02.028 ISSN 0273-1177

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0273117719301322


Understanding the thermosphere and ionosphere conditions is crucial for spacecraft operations and many applications using radio signal transmission e.g. in communication and navigation applications. In this sense, physics based modelling plays an important role, since it can adequately reproduce the complex coupling mechanisms in magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (MIT) system. Next to the capacity of the model itself, the accuracy of the model results depends on the quality of the input data (forcing). In this study, we analyze the impact of input data uncertainties on the model results. We use the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics model (CTIPe), which requires satellite based solar wind, interplanetary field and hemispheric power data from ACE and TIROS/NOAA missions. To identify the impact of the forcing uncertainties, two model runs are compared against each other. The first run uses the input data that were available in real-time (operational run) and the second run uses the best estimate obtained in post-processing (research run). The analysis is performed in a case study on the $20^{th}$ November 2003 extreme geomagnetic storm, that caused significant perturbations in the MIT system. This paper validates the thermosphere and ionosphere response to this storm over Europe comparing both CTIPe model runs with measurements of Total Electron Content (TEC) and thermosphere neutral density. In general, CTIPe results show a good agreement with measurements. However, the deviations between the model and observations are larger in the ionosphere than in the thermosphere. Comparing the two model runs, it has been shown that the deviations between model results and measurements are larger for the operational run than the research run. It is evident for the storm analyzed here, that the best estimate of the forcing has substantially improved the model performance. The consistency between simulation and measurements allows the interpretation of the physical mechanisms behind the ionosphere perturbations and the changes in neutral composition during this event. Joule heating in the Auroral region, generating meridional winds and large scale surges, is suggested to be the main driver of the positive ionospheric storm over central Europe. In the polar cap and Auroral region, convection processes dominate the thermosphere-ionosphere conditions.This study does not only illustrate the importance of working with a good estimate of the model forcings, but also indicates the necessity of using measurements and models, to get a better understanding of the most likely responsible processes for the observed storm effects.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/123760/
Document Type:Article
Title:On the difference between operational and research simulations with CTIPe
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Fernandez Gomez, IsabelIsabel.FernandezGomez (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Fedrizzi, MariangelSWPC, NOAA, BoulderUNSPECIFIED
Codrescu, MihailSWPC, NOAA, BoulderUNSPECIFIED
Borries, Claudiaclaudia.borries (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Fillion, Martinmartinfillions (at) gmail.comUNSPECIFIED
Fuller-Rowell, TimothySWPC, NOAA, BoulderUNSPECIFIED
Date:19 February 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Advances in Space Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.asr.2019.02.028
Keywords:CTIPe model, Operational vs. research simulations, Importance of model forcings, 20th November 2003 storm dynamics
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Communication and Navigation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R KN - Kommunikation und Navigation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Ionosphäre
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Communication and Navigation
Institute of Communication and Navigation > Navigation
Deposited By: Fernandez Gomez, PhD. Isabel
Deposited On:24 Jun 2019 14:12
Last Modified:14 Apr 2020 15:02

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