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Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction employing Bayesian Model Averaging

Körner, Stephan and Holzäpfel, Frank and Sölch, Ingo (2019) Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction employing Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of Aircraft, pp. 695-706. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA). DOI: 10.2514/1.C035109 ISSN 0021-8669

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.2514/1.C035109

Abstract

This paper investigates the capability of the multimodel ensemble approach to improve the deterministic forecast of wake-vortex behavior and to produce reliable probabilistic vortex habitation areas. Therefore, the deterministic two- phase wake vortex model D2P, the aircraft vortex spacing system prediction algorithm (APA) 3.2, APA 3.4, APA 3.8, and terminal area simulation system driven algorithms for wake prediction (TDP 2.1) wake-vortex models are exchanged within the framework of a NASA/DLR cooperation.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/123408/
Document Type:Article
Title:Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction employing Bayesian Model Averaging
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Körner, StephanDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Holzäpfel, FrankDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3182-1832
Sölch, IngoDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:2019
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Aircraft
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.2514/1.C035109
Page Range:pp. 695-706
Publisher:American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA)
ISSN:0021-8669
Status:Published
Keywords:wake vortex, prediction, multimodel ensemble
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Ziegele, Brigitte
Deposited On:20 Nov 2018 15:20
Last Modified:27 Sep 2019 08:20

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