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Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Eyring, Veronika and Cox, Peter M. and Flato, Gregory and Gleckler, Peter J. and Abramowitz, Gab and Caldwell, Peter and Collins, William D. and Gier, Bettina and Hall, Alex D. and Hoffman, Forrest M. and Hurtt, George C. and Jahn, Alexandra and Jones, Chris D. and Klein, Stephen A. and Krasting, John and Kwiatkowski, Lester and Lorenz, Ruth and Maloney, Eric and Meehl, Gerald A. and Pendergrass, Angeline and Pincus, Robert and Ruane, Alex and Russell, Joellen L. and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Sherwood, Steven C. and Simpson, Isla R. and Stouffer, Ronald J. and Williamson, Mark S. (2019) Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, pp. 102-110. Springer. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y ISSN 1758-678X

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0355-y.epdf?author_access_token=MU8B_eOqWLV2L5OMWA-Wx9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PzkEDioUqskgpo7x3ex--5krh9okuTVjJbaEGpr3WxetEor8Y-ssGIY1kcSNkkf1pAjP6CVA_fEbyLn3haIIOI1TLloSrPt4emsYBoJ3C0gA==

Abstract

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of indepen- dence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/123315/
Document Type:Article
Title:Taking climate model evaluation to the next level
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-4885
Cox, Peter M.Univ, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Flato, GregoryEnvironment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, CanadaUNSPECIFIED
Gleckler, Peter J.Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Abramowitz, GabUniversity of New South Wales, Sydney AustraliaUNSPECIFIED
Caldwell, PeterLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California USAUNSPECIFIED
Collins, William D.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, California USAUNSPECIFIED
Gier, BettinaUniv. BremenUNSPECIFIED
Hall, Alex D.Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Hoffman, Forrest M.Computational Earh Sciences Group and Climate Change Science Institute, TN, USAUNSPECIFIED
Hurtt, George C.Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Jahn, AlexandraUniv. of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Jones, Chris D.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Klein, Stephen A.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, California USAUNSPECIFIED
Krasting, JohnGFDL, USAUNSPECIFIED
Kwiatkowski, LesterIPSL, Paris, FrankreichUNSPECIFIED
Lorenz, RuthETH Zürich, SwitzerlandUNSPECIFIED
Maloney, EricCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder USAUNSPECIFIED
Meehl, Gerald A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pendergrass, AngelineNCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pincus, RobertCIRES, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Ruane, AlexNASA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Russell, Joellen L.Univ. of Arizona, Tucson USAUNSPECIFIED
Sanderson, Benjamin M.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Santer, Benjamin D.Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA, USAUNSPECIFIED
Sherwood, Steven C.University of New South Wales, Sydney, AustraliaUNSPECIFIED
Simpson, Isla R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Stouffer, Ronald J.Univ. of Arizona, Tucson USAUNSPECIFIED
Williamson, Mark S.Univ. of Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Date:2019
Journal or Publication Title:Nature Climate Change
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
Page Range:pp. 102-110
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1758-678X
Status:Published
Keywords:Climate modelling, climate model evaluation, CMIP
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Langer, Michaela
Deposited On:21 Nov 2018 12:24
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:21

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