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Does context matter? A comparative study modelling autonomous vehicle impact on travel behaviour for Germany and the USA

Kröger, Lars und Kuhnimhof, Tobias und Trommer, Stefan (2018) Does context matter? A comparative study modelling autonomous vehicle impact on travel behaviour for Germany and the USA. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Seiten 1-16. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.03.033. ISSN 0965-8564.

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Offizielle URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856417301180

Kurzfassung

This paper, for the first time, presents comparable projections of travel behaviour impacts of the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) into the private car fleet for two countries, namely the USA and Germany. The focus is on fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) which allow drivers to engage in other activities enroute. Two 2035 scenarios - a trend scenario and an extreme scenario - are presented for both study countries. For these projections, we combine a vehicle technology diffusion model and an aspatial travel demand model. Factors that influence AV impact in the behavioural model are mainly new automobile user groups, e.g. travellers with mobility impairments, and altered generalized costs of travel, e.g. due to a lower value of travel time savings for car travel. The results indicate that AV penetrations rates might be higher in Germany (10% or 38% respectively) than in the USA (8% or 29% respectively) due to a higher share of luxury cars and quicker fleet turnover. On the contrary, the increase of vehicle mileage induced by AVs is not higher in Germany (+2.4% or +8.6% respectively) than in the USA (+3.4% or +8.6% respectively). This is mainly due to the lack of mode alternatives and lower fuel costs resulting in a higher share of travel times among the total generalized costs of travel in the USA. These results clearly indicate that context factors shaped by national policy will influence AV adoption and impact on travel demand changes. Based on these results the paper draws policy recommendations which will help to harness the advantages of AVs while avoiding their negative consequences.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/121837/
Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Does context matter? A comparative study modelling autonomous vehicle impact on travel behaviour for Germany and the USA
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Kröger, LarsLars.Kroeger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1807-924XNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kuhnimhof, Tobiastobias.kuhnimhof (at) dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Trommer, Stefanstefan.trommer (at) dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:2018
Erschienen in:Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Nein
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI:10.1016/j.tra.2018.03.033
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1-16
Verlag:Elsevier
ISSN:0965-8564
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Vehicle Automation Autonomous vehicles Diffusion rates of autonomous vehicles Market Penetration Fleet Evolution Modelling travel demand Impact on travel demand
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Zukunftsbilder eines automatisierten integrierten Verkehrssystems (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung
Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Personenverkehr
Hinterlegt von: Kröger, Lars
Hinterlegt am:10 Jan 2019 10:23
Letzte Änderung:08 Nov 2023 14:46

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