elib
DLR-Header
DLR-Logo -> http://www.dlr.de
DLR Portal Home | Imprint | Privacy Policy | Contact | Deutsch
Fontsize: [-] Text [+]

A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports

Gelhausen, Marc and Berster, Peter and Wilken, Dieter (2018) A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports. Journal of Air Transport Management. Elsevier. ISSN 0969-6997

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

The German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., DLR) has developed and applied a classical model of forecasting the total number of air passengers and aircraft movements at German airports for many years. The model follows the four-step approach of forecasting the trip generation, spatial distribution and assignment to routes and aircraft movements. In recent years, it has become increasingly difficult to update and verify the model because of a lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model, which directly forecasts the total number of air passengers and air transport movements at German airports. The forecast functions are co-integrated regression models, which have been econometrically estimated taking into account time series data from 1992 to 2015. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both the classical and new model approaches. The new model has been employed to estimate the effects of Brexit on traffic volume at German airports for the years 2016 to 2018.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/121391/
Document Type:Article
Title:A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Gelhausen, Marcmarc.gelhausen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Berster, PeterPeter.Berster (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Wilken, DieterDieter.Wilken (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2018
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Air Transport Management
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0969-6997
Status:Published
Keywords:Air transport demand and supply forecasting, Brexit, classical four-step model, co-integrated regression model, passenger and air transport movement model
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Research
Deposited By: Gelhausen, Marc
Deposited On:28 Aug 2018 08:21
Last Modified:10 Jan 2019 15:48

Repository Staff Only: item control page

Browse
Search
Help & Contact
Information
electronic library is running on EPrints 3.3.12
Copyright © 2008-2017 German Aerospace Center (DLR). All rights reserved.