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High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems

Teske, Sven and Pregger, Thomas and Simon, Sonja and Naegler, Tobias (2018) High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 30, pp. 89-102. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.007 ISSN 1877-3435

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343517302361


To meet the terms of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global energy system must be entirely decarbonized by the end of this century. Two scenarios have been developed: a reference case (REF) and an advanced 100% renewable energy scenario (ADV). ADV reflects the trends in global energy systems and will decarbonize the entire energy system by 2050. Those results are compared with the IPCC AR5 450ppm scenarios, in terms of the 2050 energy demand projections—primary and final energy—and the demands for the transport and building sectors because they are important in urban environments. The results are further discussed with regard to the impact on urban infrastructures and the role of megacities in the global energy consumption pattern. Under the assumption that urbanization rates will remain at the 2015 level until 2050, the annual energy demand for buildings in urban areas is expected to increase by 27 EJ under the reference scenario (REF), from 57EJ to 84EJ per year, whereas ADV would lead to an overall reduction to 46EJ per year by 2050, while the population and GDP continue to grow. Overall, the global energy demand in the transport sector is expected to increase by over 60% by 2050 under REF, whereas the deep mitigation pathway (ADV) reduces the transport energy demand below that of the base year, to 70EJ per year. This is a significant reduction, even compared with other 450ppm scenarios, and can be achieved by a drastic shift to electric mobility in response to vehicle efficiency standards, a phasing-out of combustion engines in the transport sector by 2030, and a modal shift in favor of urban public transport. The global energy demand for the building sector in ADV shows a smaller deviation in comparison to other 450ppm scenarios than that for the transport sector.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/120613/
Document Type:Article
Title:High renewable energy penetration scenarios and their implications for urban energy and transport systems
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Teske, SvenUniversity of Technology Sydney (UTS), AustraliaUNSPECIFIED
Pregger, ThomasThomas.Pregger (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451
Simon, SonjaSonja.Simon (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457
Naegler, TobiasTobias.Naegler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2390-1672
Journal or Publication Title:Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.cosust.2018.04.007
Page Range:pp. 89-102
Keywords:: low-carbon scenario; global demand projection; energy efficiency; efficiency standard; global energy scenario; CO2 reduction; renewable energy; urban infrastructure; comparative AR5 450 ppm scenario
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Simon, Dr. Sonja
Deposited On:16 Jul 2018 18:44
Last Modified:01 Sep 2019 03:00

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