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Temperature and sea ice hindcast skill of the MiKlip decadal prediction system in the Arctic

Senftleben, Daniel and Eyring, Veronika and Lauer, Axel and Righi, Mattia (2018) Temperature and sea ice hindcast skill of the MiKlip decadal prediction system in the Arctic. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, pp. 1-14. Borntraeger Science Publishers. DOI: 10.1127/metz/2018/0871 ISSN 0941-2948

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Official URL: https://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/prepub/88532/Temperature_and_sea_ice_hindcast_skill_of_the_MiKlip_decadal_prediction_system_in_the_Arctic

Abstract

In this study, hindcast skill for near-surface air temperature (TAS), sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration, and sea ice area is assessed for the Arctic region using decadal simulations with the MiKlip decadal prototype prediction system. The prototype MiKlip system is based on the low-resolution version of the MPI-ESM model. In the simulations, a full field initialization of atmospheric and oceanic variables was used, but sea ice was not initialized. The hypothesis is that the increase in hindcast skill due to initialization found for TAS and SST in the North Atlantic in the prototype system compared to the historical simulations leads to enhanced skill also in the Arctic. However, the skill enhancement compared to the uninitialized experiments in the Arctic is generally weak. The hindcast skill only increases for SST and sea ice concentration along the east coast of Greenland and in the Fram Strait in lead years 2–5. Initialization additionally improves the skill in regionally integrated sea ice area (detrended) in the Greenland Sea, but only in lead year 1 and only in winter, and not in other Arctic regions. In order to assess whether additional initialization of sea ice concentration improves skill, we also analyse hindcasts and historical simulations performed with the MiKlip preoperational system that is based on the high-resolution version of the MPI-ESM. These simulations have nonetheless a negative bias in sea ice area in late summer of 1 to 3 million km2 . Noting that this is a much smaller ensemble than for the prototype system, the hindcast skill in North Atlantic TAS and SSTs is significantly reduced and not present when evaluated against ERA-Interim instead of HadCRUT4 data. Accordingly, in the Arctic, no additional skill compared to the prototype hindcasts is found. Our results underline the importance to assess the robustness of skill with different observational datasets and metrics. For future MiKlip simulations, we recommend to additionally initialize sea ice thickness or age, and to initialize the simulations in a different month to potentially enhance sea ice skill in the Arctic.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/119485/
Document Type:Article
Title:Temperature and sea ice hindcast skill of the MiKlip decadal prediction system in the Arctic
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Senftleben, DanielDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5798-1119
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-4885
Lauer, AxelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9270-1044
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3827-5950
Date:7 February 2018
Journal or Publication Title:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1127/metz/2018/0871
Page Range:pp. 1-14
Publisher:Borntraeger Science Publishers
ISSN:0941-2948
Status:Published
Keywords:Arctic, sea ice, decadal simulations, near term climate prediction, hindcast skill, climate change, ESMValTool, MiKlip
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Senftleben, Daniel
Deposited On:04 Apr 2018 17:30
Last Modified:20 Nov 2018 11:06

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