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Future security of power supply in Germany—The role of stochastic power plant outages and intermittent generation

Gils, Hans Christian and Bothor, Sebastian and Genoese, Massimo and Cao, Karl-Kiên (2018) Future security of power supply in Germany—The role of stochastic power plant outages and intermittent generation. International Journal of Energy Research, 42 (5), pp. 1894-1913. Wiley. DOI: 10.1002/er.3957 ISSN 0363-907X

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/er.3957

Abstract

Many power plants in Germany and Europe are approaching the end of their technical lifetime. Moreover, the increasing wind and solar power generation reduces the operation times of thermal power plants, making future investments in new generation capacity uncertain under current market conditions. Consequently, the future development of security of power supply is unclear. In this paper, we assess the impact of stochastic fluctuations in power plant availability, renewable generation, and grid load on the future security of supply in Germany. We model variations in power plant availability by application of a combined Mean-reversion Jump-diffusion approach. On the basis of that and using Monte-Carlo methods, we simulate 300 different time series of availability. These profiles are fed into the fundamental power system model REMix, applied to evaluate the appearance of supply shortfalls in hourly resolution. We assess 6 scenarios for the year 2025, differing in renewable generation and demand profiles, as well as grid infrastructure. Geographical focus of the analysis is Germany, but the electricity exchange with its European neighbours is modelled as well. Our results show that the choice of the power plant availability profile can change the loss of load expectation and loss of load hours by up to 50%. However, the influence of load and renewable generation profiles is found to be significantly higher. Assuming that no new conventional power plants are built and existing plants are decommissioned at the end of their empirical lifetime, we identify supply gaps of up to 2.7 GW in Germany.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/119354/
Document Type:Article
Title:Future security of power supply in Germany—The role of stochastic power plant outages and intermittent generation
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Gils, Hans Christianhans-christian.gils (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6745-6609
Bothor, SebastianIER Uni StuttgartUNSPECIFIED
Genoese, MassimoKarlsruher Institut für TechnologieUNSPECIFIED
Cao, Karl-Kiênkarl-kien.cao (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:30 January 2018
Journal or Publication Title:International Journal of Energy Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:42
DOI :10.1002/er.3957
Page Range:pp. 1894-1913
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0363-907X
Status:Published
Keywords:energy system modeling, REMix, security of supply, stochastic power plant outages, variable renewable energy
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Gils, Hans Christian
Deposited On:07 Sep 2018 13:52
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:16

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