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Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0°C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

Faye, Babacar and Webber, Heidi and Naab, Jesse B. and MacCarthy, Dils S. and Adam, Myriam and Ewert, Frank and Lamers, John and Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Ruane, Alex and Gessner, Ursula and Hoogenboom, Gerrit and Boote, Ken and Shelia, Vakhtang and Saeed, Fahad and Wisser, Dominik and Hadir, Sofia and Laux, Patrick and Gaiser, Thomas (2018) Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0°C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna. Environmental Research Letters, 13, pp. 1-14. Institute of Physics (IOP) Publishing. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40. ISSN 1748-9326.

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Official URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40/meta


To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/119146/
Document Type:Article
Title:Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0°C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Faye, BabacarUniversität BonnUNSPECIFIED
Webber, HeidiUniversität Bonn, ZALFUNSPECIFIED
MacCarthy, Dils S.University of GhanaUNSPECIFIED
Ewert, FrankUniversität Bonn, ZALFUNSPECIFIED
Lamers, JohnCenter for Development Research (ZEF)UNSPECIFIED
Schleussner, Carl-FriedrichClimate Analytics, PIKUNSPECIFIED
Gessner, Ursulaursula.gessner (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Hoogenboom, GerritUniversity of FloridaUNSPECIFIED
Boote, KenUniversity of FloridaUNSPECIFIED
Shelia, VakhtangUniversity of FloridaUNSPECIFIED
Saeed, FahadClimate Analytics, King Abdul Aziz UniversityUNSPECIFIED
Hadir, SofiaUniversität BonnUNSPECIFIED
Gaiser, ThomasUni AugsburgUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Environmental Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40
Page Range:pp. 1-14
Publisher:Institute of Physics (IOP) Publishing
Keywords:1.5 ◦C,West Africa, food security, climate change, DSSAT, SIMPLACE, cropping
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Remote Sensing and Geo Research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Land Surface
Deposited By: Gessner, Ursula
Deposited On:07 Mar 2018 12:29
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:53

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