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Analyzing uncertainties in model response using the point estimate method: applications from railway asset management

Neumann, Thorsten and Schenkendorf, René and Dutschk, Beate (2019) Analyzing uncertainties in model response using the point estimate method: applications from railway asset management. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 8 (15). doi: 10.1177/1748006X19825593. ISSN 1748-006X.

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Official URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X19825593

Abstract

Predicting current and future states of rail infrastructure based on existing data and measurements is essential for optimal maintenance and operation of railway systems. Mathematical models are helpful tools for detecting failures and extrapolating current states into the future. This, however, inherently gives rise to uncertainties in the model response that must be analyzed carefully to avoid misleading results and conclusions. Commonly, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are used for such analyses which often require a large number of sample points to be evaluated for convergence. Moreover, even if quite close to the exact distributions, the MC approach necessarily provides approximate results only. In contrast to that, the present contribution reviews an alternative way of computing important statistical quantities of the model response. The so-called point estimate method (PEM), which can be shown to be exact under certain constraints, usually (i.e., depending on the number of input variables) works with only a few specific sample points. Thus, the PEM helps to reduce the computational load for model evaluation considerably in the case of complex models or large-scale applications. To demonstrate the PEM, five academic but typical examples of railway asset management are analyzed in more detail: i) track degradation, ii) reliability analysis of composite systems, iii) terminal reliability in rail networks, iv) failure detection/identification using decision trees, and v) track condition modeling incorporating maintenance. Advantages as well as limitations of the PEM in comparison to common MC simulations are discussed.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/118916/
Document Type:Article
Title:Analyzing uncertainties in model response using the point estimate method: applications from railway asset management
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Neumann, ThorstenThorsten.Neumann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9236-0585
Schenkendorf, Renér.schenkendorf (at) tu-braunschweig.deUNSPECIFIED
Dutschk, BeateBeate.Dutschk (at) kit.eduUNSPECIFIED
Date:30 January 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:8
DOI :10.1177/1748006X19825593
ISSN:1748-006X
Status:Published
Keywords:Uncertainty propagation analysis, reliability, asset management, prognostics, health management, point estimate method
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Traffic Management (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Next Generation Railway Systems III (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transportation Systems > Data Management and Knowledge Discovery
Deposited By: Neumann, Dr.-Ing. Thorsten
Deposited On:31 Jan 2019 15:19
Last Modified:20 Jun 2021 15:50

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