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What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type

Mocanu, Tudor (2018) What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type. In: CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 1: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD. 97th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 7.-11. Jan. 2018, Washington D.C., USA.

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Abstract

New technologies are emerging on the private vehicle market. Conventional propulsion systems are set to be replaced by alternative, more environment-friendly ones (e.g. electric vehicles), while certain new features, like autonomous driving, will possibly change the way private cars are employed. In order to assess the impact of such technologies, one must estimate how often and for which trips these vehicle types will be used. Another issue is the exact localization of certain vehicle types on the network, in order to assess environmental effects and identify where specific roadside infrastructure (e.g. charging stations) will be required. This paper presents four approaches on how to forecast car usage by vehicle type using a macroscopic travel demand model in combination with a vehicle fleet or technology diffusion model. Integrating the two types of models requires tools ranging from assumptions and extrapolation of empirical data to synthetic or incremental discrete choice models. The approaches are employed in a case study forecasting travel demand using privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs) in Germany in 2030. Despite identical input data, the estimated proportion of vehicle miles travelled (VMT) using AVs varies between 11 and 23 percent of overall car VMT, depending on the approach chosen. The reasons for this variation in results are investigated and some recommendations are given. To avoid the difficulties of fitting a synthetic model to observed data and increase the accuracy of the results, we recommend formulating the vehicle type choice as an incremental model added to the travel demand model.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/118458/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Mocanu, TudorTudor.Mocanu (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:January 2018
Journal or Publication Title:CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS 1: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Status:Published
Keywords:Travel Demand Modeling, Vehicle Use, Fleet Modeling, Vehicle Technology Diffusion, Autonomous Vehicles
Event Title:97th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Event Location:Washington D.C., USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:7.-11. Jan. 2018
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Mocanu, Tudor
Deposited On:05 Feb 2018 11:07
Last Modified:05 Feb 2018 11:07

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