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Modeling the Usage of Future Vehicle Types

Mocanu, Tudor (2017) Modeling the Usage of Future Vehicle Types. Young Researchers Seminar 2017, 16.-18. Mai 2017, Berlin, Deutschland.

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Abstract

New technologies are emerging in the private vehicle market. On the one hand, conventional propulsion systems are set to be replaced by alternative, more environment-friendly ones (e.g. electric vehicles). One the other hand, certain new features, like vehicle automation, will possibly change the way private cars are used. In order to assess the impact of such technologies, it is necessary to estimate how often and for which trips these vehicles will be used. Another important issue is the exact localization of certain types of vehicles on the street network, in order to determine where specific roadside infrastructure will be required. This paper presents several approaches to estimate the usage of specific types of private vehicles. One approach is to use empirical trip data to create homogenous categories of trips according to trip length, purpose etc. For these trip categories, the usage of vehicle types is assumed to remain unchanged and to be influenced only by certain vehicle attributes like size, age etc., meaning that new vehicle types will be used just like current ones if they are grouped in the same category. A different approach is to use discrete choice modeling to calculate the vehicle shares. The challenge using this approach is to identify the relevant variables and estimate a model consistent with input data.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/118001/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Modeling the Usage of Future Vehicle Types
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Mocanu, TudorTudor.Mocanu (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2017
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Autonomous cars, vehicle technology diffusion, vehicle use, fleet modelling, transport modelling
Event Title:Young Researchers Seminar 2017
Event Location:Berlin, Deutschland
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:16.-18. Mai 2017
Organizer:ECTRI, FERSI, FEHRL
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Mocanu, Tudor
Deposited On:05 Feb 2018 11:04
Last Modified:05 Feb 2018 11:04

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