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Methodology and Application of a German National Passenger Transport Model for Future Transport Scenarios

Winkler, Christian und Mocanu, Tudor (2017) Methodology and Application of a German National Passenger Transport Model for Future Transport Scenarios. In: Proceedings of the 45th European Transport Conference. European Transport Conference, 4.-6. Okt. 2017, Barcelona, Spanien.

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Kurzfassung

We live in rapidly changing times with new technologies emerging, but are also facing great challenges. One of these global challenges in particular is climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. CO2). The transport sector has a large contribution to the total CO2 emissions. In Germany, the transport sector is responsible for almost 20% of all CO2 emissions. Although there are other industries responsible for even more, e.g. the energy industry, only emissions related to the transport sector have not decreased compared to 1990 levels. Therefore, it is obvious that changes in this sector are necessary. However, choosing meaningful transport policies and measures is not straightforward. In this context, an effective method is to define different transport scenarios including different assumptions and policies. Specific transport models are required for the quantification of impacts on the transport system. The DLR Transport Program’s research project “Transport and the Environment” (Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt, VEU) addresses the issue of transport-related emissions by applying scenario techniques and defining different transport scenarios for the year 2040. The impact of these scenarios on travel demand and the resulting CO2 emissions is forecasted. As part of this project, the development and application of a National Transport Model for Germany was necessary. The focus of this paper is to give an overview on the methodology used to develop the model. A significant challenge in developing and applying a transport model for different scenarios is the necessity to ensure that the model is able to quantify a wide range of policy measures. These include e.g. changes in infrastructure, costs of different modes, mode availability and so on. Moreover, the project scenarios comprise urban and interregional aspects, which require more than one single model. Therefore, the German National Passenger Transport Model is divided into two travel demand models – for short and long distance travel – which have different levels of detail and consider different trip purposes and modes. Costs are skimmed from supply models that are also used for multi-class assignments together with commercial transport modes. The applicability of the model is shown by results from a project reference scenario for 2040. Beside the model concept and application, its limitations and requirements for further development are also discussed in this paper.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/117999/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Methodology and Application of a German National Passenger Transport Model for Future Transport Scenarios
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Winkler, ChristianChristian.Winkler (at) dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Mocanu, TudorTudor.Mocanu (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2883-0121NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Oktober 2017
Erschienen in:Proceedings of the 45th European Transport Conference
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Transport model, travel demand, scenario
Veranstaltungstitel:European Transport Conference
Veranstaltungsort:Barcelona, Spanien
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:4.-6. Okt. 2017
Veranstalter :Association for European Transport
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Personenverkehr
Hinterlegt von: Winkler, Dr.-Ing. Christian
Hinterlegt am:11 Jan 2018 14:25
Letzte Änderung:29 Mär 2023 00:36

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