Methodology and Application of a German National Passenger Transport Model for Future Transport Scenarios

Abstract

We live in rapidly changing times with new technologies emerging, but are also facing great challenges. One of these global challenges in particular is climate change driven by greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. CO2). The transport sector has a large contribution to the total CO2 emissions. In Germany, the transport sector is responsible for almost 20% of all CO2 emissions. Although there are other industries responsible for even more, e.g. the energy industry, only emissions related to the transport sector have not decreased compared to 1990 levels. Therefore, it is obvious that changes in this sector are necessary. However, choosing meaningful transport policies and measures is not straightforward. In this context, an effective method is to define different transport scenarios including different assumptions and policies. Specific transport models are required for the quantification of impacts on the transport system. The DLR Transport Program’s research project “Transport and the Environment” (Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt, VEU) addresses the issue of transport-related emissions by applying scenario techniques and defining different transport scenarios for the year 2040. The impact of these scenarios on travel demand and the resulting CO2 emissions is forecasted. As part of this project, the development and application of a National Transport Model for Germany was necessary. The focus of this paper is to give an overview on the methodology used to develop the model. A significant challenge in developing and applying a transport model for different scenarios is the necessity to ensure that the model is able to quantify a wide range of policy measures. These include e.g. changes in infrastructure, costs of different modes, mode availability and so on. Moreover, the project scenarios comprise urban and interregional aspects, which require more than one single model. Therefore, the German National Passenger Transport Model is divided into two travel demand models – for short and long distance travel – which have different levels of detail and consider different trip purposes and modes. Costs are skimmed from supply models that are also used for multi-class assignments together with commercial transport modes. The applicability of the model is shown by results from a project reference scenario for 2040. Beside the model concept and application, its limitations and requirements for further development are also discussed in this paper.