Can renewable energy sources meet electric vehicle charging demand today and in the future? A microscopic time-specific travel demand analysis for Germany.

Abstract

The transportation sector is responsible for 23% of total global energy-related CO2 emissions. Achieving environmental goals thus requires significant reductions in transportation emissions. These emissions are almost entirely from road transportation. Consequently, electric vehicles have been identified as a solution to mitigate transportation-related emissions. Significant research on electric vehicles has been conducted to date. A particular area lacking detailed study is the time-specific charging demand from electric vehicles and how this charging demand relates to time-specific renewable energy sources. This paper provides a detailed analysis of electric vehicle charging demand coupled with technology specific electricity supply. Using Germany as a case study, we determine total charging demand using a microscopic travel model. The model assumes that the use of electric vehicles is very similar to the use of conventional vehicles and that electric vehicles preferably charge where they already park. We conduct the analysis for 2016 using actual electric vehicle registrations and electricity supply. We then analyze 2030 and 2050 based on projections for electric vehicles and the electricity supply. The analysis provides numerous insights into electric vehicle charging demand and the associated electricity supply. First, electric vehicle charging demand in Germany in 2016 is shown to be negligible. Second, charging demand for six million electric vehicles in 2030 can be met using renewable energy sources regardless of time over the course of an entire year. Finally, we calculate charging demand for an entire fleet of electric vehicles in 2050 to allow for future analysis of electric vehicles as a means to store excess electricity.