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Uncertainty Analysis in Railway Asset Management using the Point-Estimate-Method

Neumann, Thorsten (2018) Uncertainty Analysis in Railway Asset Management using the Point-Estimate-Method. 1st European Railway Asset Management Symposium, 2018-03-27 - 2018-03-28, Nottingham, England.

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Kurzfassung

Preventive and condition-based maintenance of rail infrastructure is an important aspect in reducing interruptions and delays in train operations. In case of optimal implementation, it even helps to lower the overall maintenance costs by avoiding expensive instant repairs of sudden failures including possible incidental damages. For being effective in this context, asset managers need to estimate not only the current state of the rail infrastructure and its components but they also need to predict future conditions based on available data and measurements. Stochastic modelling has shown to be a promising way for tackling these tasks. However, uncertainties of the model results need to be evaluated then in order to make maintenance planning as solid as possible. Commonly, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are used for analyzing the stochastic distributions of the model outputs whenever analytical solutions are not possible or difficult to obtain. In contrast to that, an interesting alternative for numerically deriving important statistical quantities related to the model results (such as mean or standard deviation) is given by the so-called Point Estimate Method (PEM). Depending on the details of the model under consideration, PEM can be shown to be even exact under certain constraints while often requiring just a small number of sample points to be evaluated. In contrast to that, the MC approach naturally yields approximate results only with a potential need for several hundred or thousand sample points in order to converge. The present contribution shortly reviews the mathematical background of PEM before demonstrating its performance based on three more or less academic examples from the wide field of railway asset management: i) track degradation, ii) reliability analysis of composite systems, iii) failure detection/identification using decision trees. Finally, advantages as well as limitations of the PEM approach in comparison to common MC simulations are discussed.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/115933/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Uncertainty Analysis in Railway Asset Management using the Point-Estimate-Method
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Neumann, ThorstenThorsten.Neumann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9236-0585NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:27 März 2018
Referierte Publikation:Nein
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Uncertainty, Point-Estimate-Method, Monte Carlo Simulation, Railway, Asset Management
Veranstaltungstitel:1st European Railway Asset Management Symposium
Veranstaltungsort:Nottingham, England
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsbeginn:27 März 2018
Veranstaltungsende:28 März 2018
Veranstalter :University of Nottingham
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrsmanagement (alt)
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - TrackScan (alt), V - Next Generation Railway Systems III (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrssystemtechnik > Datenerfassung und Informationsgewinnung
Hinterlegt von: Neumann, Dr.-Ing. Thorsten
Hinterlegt am:11 Apr 2018 11:29
Letzte Änderung:24 Apr 2024 20:20

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