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DNICast - Validation of DNI nowcasting results

Kuhn, Pascal Moritz and Wilbert, Stefan and Prahl, Christoph and Kazantzidis, A. and Ramirez, Lourdes and Zarzalejo, L.F. and Vuilleumier, L. and Blanc, Philippe and Pitz-Paal, Robert (2017) DNICast - Validation of DNI nowcasting results. Project Report.

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To enable efficient plant operation, Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) irradiance maps in high spatial and temporal resolutions for up to 30 minutes ahead are of interest. Ground-based All Sky Imagers (ASI) can be used to detect, track and predict 3D positions of clouds possibly shading the plant. Within the framework of the DNICast project, an ASI-based nowcasting method was developed and applied to data measured on Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA). The ASI derived nowcasts are validated in this report with special focus on the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation on the deviations found comparing the nowcasts to ground measurements. In most publications, nowcasted irradiance maps are only validated against singular ground measurements and commonly only for one-minute averages. These validation metrics are of minor relevance for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and most Concentrating Photovoltaics (CPV) plants as spatially aggregated irradiances (e.g. over a whole subfield) and temporally aggregated irradiance are more important. This is due to the thermal inertia of the heat transfer fluid and the interconnection between several CPV collectors. Therefore, spatial and temporal aggregation effects are investigated in this publication in detail.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/115663/
Document Type:Monograph (Project Report)
Title:DNICast - Validation of DNI nowcasting results
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Kuhn, Pascal MoritzUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9978-5706
Wilbert, StefanUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3573-3004
Prahl, ChristophUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8596-9050
Kazantzidis, A.univ. of patras, patras, grUNSPECIFIED
Ramirez, LourdesciematUNSPECIFIED
Blanc, Philippemines paristechUNSPECIFIED
Pitz-Paal, RobertUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3542-3391
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Direct normal irradiance, forecasting, nowcasting, all sky imager, concentrating solar power technology, concentrating photovoltaic technology, validation
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:Concentrating Solar Thermal Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SW - Solar and Wind Energy
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Impact of Desert Environment (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Solar Research > Qualification
Deposited By: Kruschinski, Anja
Deposited On:20 Nov 2017 14:08
Last Modified:20 Jun 2021 15:50

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