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DNICast Report on Combination of nowcasted DNI

Ramirez, Lourdes and Hanrieder, Natalie and Wilbert, Stefan and Zarzalejo, L.F. and Vindel, Jose Maria and Valenzuela, R.X. and Gaston, Martin (2017) DNICast Report on Combination of nowcasted DNI. Project Report.

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Abstract

Within the EU FP7 DNICast project (Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for the optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies) a set of innovative and improved forecast methods are proposed. One additional task in the project is the proposal and analysis of different options to combine the data provided by forecast sources. This report is focused on this last task of combination, describing the proposed methodologies for the combination. Inputs for the combination come from nowcasting data sets based on different methods already developed in the project. After this task, the data sets are prepared for their validation and their application in CST (Concentrating Solar Technology) models. After a review of forecasts combination methodologies, the report is focused on showing three different methodologies for combining Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) nowcast outputs. The first combination methodology weighs the different nowcast data sets according to their uncertainty estimations (UWA). The second combination method uses a time-dependent multi-regressive model (MRA) and the third is based on a weight calculation based on the Euclidean distance between forecasts as functional data (DWA). The three combination approaches are described in this report. Detailed analysis of the result provided by each methodology is presented in the deliverable 3.13.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/115533/
Document Type:Monograph (Project Report)
Title:DNICast Report on Combination of nowcasted DNI
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Ramirez, LourdesciematUNSPECIFIED
Hanrieder, Natalienatalie.hanrieder (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9671-351X
Wilbert, StefanStefan.Wilbert (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3573-3004
Zarzalejo, L.F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vindel, Jose MariaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Valenzuela, R.X.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gaston, Martinnational renewable energy center (cener)UNSPECIFIED
Date:15 August 2017
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Nowcasting, DNI, combination, uncertainty
Institution:European Union
Department:Energy
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:Concentrating Solar Thermal Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SW - Solar and Wind Energy
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Impact of Desert Environment
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Solar Research > Qualification
Deposited By: Kruschinski, Anja
Deposited On:20 Nov 2017 14:05
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:13

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