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Powertrain scenarios for cars in european markets to the year 2040

Kugler, Ulrike and Brokate, Jens and Schimeczek, Christoph and Schmid, Stephan (2017) Powertrain scenarios for cars in european markets to the year 2040. In: TAE conference proceedings - 11th International Colloquium Fuels. 11th International Colloquium Fuels – Conventional and Future Energy for Automobiles, 27.-29.06.2017, Stuttgart, Deutschland.

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Abstract

Dramatic changes in the market for car powertrains seem possible in the near future. Triggered by the need of significant CO2 reduction in the transport sector according to COP21 (Paris) or air quality problems in European cities, the introduction of more and more electrified powertrains appears necessary. In order to analyze ways to reduce CO2-emissions from cars and especially the competition between various efficiency technologies, alternative powertrains, and fuels, the vehicle technologies scenario model VECTOR21 is used in different scenario simulations. Results for two recently modelled pathways for Germany show a continuous market penetration of electrified powertrains such as full hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles. A review of our recent VECTOR21 scenarios shows that in 2040, the final energy demand in liquid fuel products is reduced by 45% on average. Furthermore, we give insights in detailed analysis of the total costs of ownership in European countries like UK, NL, DE and ES for different type of car fleets. And we discuss consequences of different scenarios in terms of mobility costs, CO2-reduction in vehicle stock, etc.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/114744/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Powertrain scenarios for cars in european markets to the year 2040
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Kugler, UlrikeUlrike.Kugler (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4734-4065
Brokate, JensJens.Brokate (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3566-0343
Schimeczek, Christophchristoph.schimeczek (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0791-9365
Schmid, StephanStephan.Schmid (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3081-8749
Date:28 June 2017
Journal or Publication Title:TAE conference proceedings - 11th International Colloquium Fuels
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Pkw-Markt-Szenarien, alternative Antriebe, VECTOR21, total costs of ownership, europäische Märkte
Event Title:11th International Colloquium Fuels – Conventional and Future Energy for Automobiles
Event Location:Stuttgart, Deutschland
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:27.-29.06.2017
Organizer:TAE Esslingen
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Fahrzeugsysteme und Technologiebewertung
Deposited By: Kugler, Ulrike
Deposited On:21 Nov 2017 14:07
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:12

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