Powertrain scenarios for cars in european markets to the year 2040

Abstract

Dramatic changes in the market for car powertrains seem possible in the near future. Triggered by the need of significant CO2 reduction in the transport sector according to COP21 (Paris) or air quality problems in European cities, the introduction of more and more electrified powertrains appears necessary. In order to analyze ways to reduce CO2-emissions from cars and especially the competition between various efficiency technologies, alternative powertrains, and fuels, the vehicle technologies scenario model VECTOR21 is used in different scenario simulations. Results for two recently modelled pathways for Germany show a continuous market penetration of electrified powertrains such as full hybrids and plug-in electric vehicles. A review of our recent VECTOR21 scenarios shows that in 2040, the final energy demand in liquid fuel products is reduced by 45% on average. Furthermore, we give insights in detailed analysis of the total costs of ownership in European countries like UK, NL, DE and ES for different type of car fleets. And we discuss consequences of different scenarios in terms of mobility costs, CO2-reduction in vehicle stock, etc.