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A gravity model for estimating passenger origin-destination flows between countries worldwide

Gelhausen, Marc and Berster, Peter (2017) A gravity model for estimating passenger origin-destination flows between countries worldwide. 21. Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference, Antwerp, Belgium.

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present a gravity model for estimating passenger origin-destination (OD) flows between countries worldwide. These model results can subsequently serve as input to identify airport-airport OD passenger flows. Based on data from Sabre MI and the World Development Indicators we compare gravity models estimated in a log-linearized form by traditional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and in a multiplicative form by Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML). The dependent variable to be modelled is the number of OD passengers per year between two countries. Independent variables include factors such as GDP per capita, population and air fares. We expect to find a significant relationship between the annual OD passengers between two countries and the explanatory variables. While distance- and GDP-related variables are rather common in gravity models, we expect further insight by inclusion of the air fare variable, which has been computed on basis of Sabre MI data. Furthermore, we expect the PPML estimator to produce better estimation results than OLS. The main contribution of this paper is a global OD passenger model on country level. We have included the fare variable to gain further insight into the structure of global passenger OD flows between countries. Furthermore, we have employed a PPML estimator to produce better and more reliable forecast results.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/113857/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:A gravity model for estimating passenger origin-destination flows between countries worldwide
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Gelhausen, Marcmarc.gelhausen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Berster, PeterPeter.Berster (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2017
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Gravity model, Passenger OD demand, Pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator
Event Title:21. Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference
Event Location:Antwerp, Belgium
Event Type:international Conference
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Research
Deposited By: Gelhausen, Marc
Deposited On:01 Sep 2017 10:11
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:11

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