How to model (and regulate) the future uptake of residential PV battery systems?

Abstract

Concerns have been raised that increasing shares of self-consumption could have a parasitic, prisoner-dilemma like effect on the overall system. PV battery deployment dynamics can be reproduced taking the anticipation of absolute profitability, and additionally its change. This assessment requires an actor-based perspective. Levy and network charges structure have a major influence - capacity based tariffs reduce the prospective uptake considerably. Next, system effects will be studied in the framework of an agent-based electricity market model, with an internal representation of market prices (hourly basis, dynamically calculated in dependence of the generation mix).