Short-time Forecasting of the mid-latitude Total Electron Content with a Median Model and a Fourier Transformation Approach

Kurzfassung

Predictions of the ionosphere are important information for users for either mitigation of threats due to ionospheric perturbations or for the purpose of mission planning. However, increasing uncertainties for forecasts of more than one hour can limit the usability of forecasts. Here, users may have individual thresholds. Therefore, we present an estimation of the accuracy of quiet time forecasts to allow judgement of their applicability and identification of development needs. Empirical prediction of the quiet-time ionospheric total electron content (TEC) is performed with two time-series approaches: the Median Model (MediMod) and a Fourier Transformation approach. Time-series models calculate their prediction values out of the most recent data or maps. The models are applied on real-time map values of the Space Weather Application Center Ionosphere (SWACI). The forecast accuracy is presented for 1 day, 3 days, 7 days and 27 days forecasts ahead and in a comparison between medium and high solar active during the years 2011 and 2015, respectively. A decreasing accuracy of longer forecasts and during higher solar activity is apparent as expected. We will show the definite values to demonstrate the performance of both approaches.