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Potential Fleet Size of Private Autonomous Vehicles in Germany and the US

Trommer, Stefan and Kröger, Lars and Kuhnimhof, Tobias (2017) Potential Fleet Size of Private Autonomous Vehicles in Germany and the US. In: Road Vehicle Automation Lecture Notes in Mobility. Springer. pp. 247-256. ISBN 978-3-319-60933-1. ISSN 2196-5552

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Abstract

There are high expectations on autonomous vehicles promising a safer, more efficient and comfortable (auto)mobility experience. On the other hand it is important to discuss possible rebound effects going along with such a development. New user groups e.g. people who do not hold a driving license today, or are currently unable to drive because of physical and/or age-related constraints suddenly are enabled to “drive” a passenger car. In addition the past has shown that increasing efficiency and enhancing the comfort leads to a higher travel demand and subsequently more vehicle miles traveled. To support the research on the impact of autonomous vehicles on the transport system it is important to analyze the potential share of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the passenger vehicle fleet in the future. The paper presents results from modelling private autonomous vehicle scenarios for the year 2035 for Germany and the US to estimate the number of vehicles within the fleet equipped with automation technologies Level 4 and higher. A vehicle technology diffusion model has been developed to model an evolutionary and a rather revolutionary scenario which are distinguished by different market entry dates and AV technology take rates. Differentiating by passenger car segment, we introduce autonomous vehicles among new vehicles from 2022 resp. 2025 onward assuming an s-shaped market-take-up until 2035

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/113194/
Document Type:Contribution to a Collection
Title:Potential Fleet Size of Private Autonomous Vehicles in Germany and the US
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Trommer, Stefanstefan.trommer (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kröger, Larslars.kroeger (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kuhnimhof, Tobiastobias.kuhnimhof (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:July 2017
Journal or Publication Title:Road Vehicle Automation
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :10.1007/978-3-319-60934-8
Page Range:pp. 247-256
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Meyer, GereonUNSPECIFIED
Beiker, SvenUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Springer
Series Name:Lecture Notes in Mobility
ISSN:2196-5552
ISBN:978-3-319-60933-1
Status:Published
Keywords:Vehicle automation, Autonomous vehicles, Diffusion rates of autonomous vehicles, Market penetration, Fleet evolution, New car sales, AV
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Trommer, Stefan
Deposited On:30 Aug 2017 10:33
Last Modified:30 Aug 2017 10:33

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