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Dynamic Paths: Towards high frequency direct normal irradiance forecasts

Fernandez Peruchena, Carlos. M. and Gaston, Martin and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Kosmale, Miriam and Martinez Marco, Isabel and Garcia-Moya, Jose Antonio and Casado-Rubio, Jose L. (2017) Dynamic Paths: Towards high frequency direct normal irradiance forecasts. Energy, 132, pp. 315-323. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.101 ISSN 0360-5442

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Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217308575

Abstract

Direct normal solar irradiance (DNI) series of high-frequency time resolution permit an accurate modeling and analysis of transient processes in concentrating solar thermal power (CSTP) technologies. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models provide an overall understanding of solar forecasting, but they are unlikely to cover a local statistical representativeness of the DNI high frequency dynamics. On the contrary, local statistical information derived from site measurements can provide statistical behavior, but may not necessarily yield an explicit model for all of the physical relationships involved. In this work, we propose a novel locally-adapted procedure for high-frequency DNI forecasting that connects these two extremes, proposing a hybrid approach in which low frequency (3-h) NWP outcomes act as boundary conditions (assuring a physical consistency with site climatic behavior) and are supplemented with Dynamic Paths of local high frequency (1-min) DNI series (assuring a statistical reproduction of site high frequency dynamics). This methodology is tested with ground measurements in 4 locations situated in different climates, and compared with a forecast base case. The analyses are carried out by classifying each measured time series into 6 categories according to its daily clearness index. Finally, metrics for adequately compare high frequency DNI forecasts are discussed.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/113122/
Document Type:Article
Title:Dynamic Paths: Towards high frequency direct normal irradiance forecasts
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Fernandez Peruchena, Carlos. M.CENERUNSPECIFIED
Gaston, MartinCENERUNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marionmarion.schroedter-homscheidt (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-903X
Kosmale, MiriamMiriam.Kosmale (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Martinez Marco, IsabelaemetUNSPECIFIED
Garcia-Moya, Jose AntonioaemetUNSPECIFIED
Casado-Rubio, Jose L.AEMETUNSPECIFIED
Date:1 August 2017
Journal or Publication Title:Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:132
DOI :10.1016/j.energy.2017.05.101
Page Range:pp. 315-323
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0360-5442
Status:Published
Keywords:Forecast; Dynamic Path; High-frequency; Variability; DNI; Numerical weather prediction (NWP)
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center
German Remote Sensing Data Center > Atmosphere
Deposited By: Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion
Deposited On:28 Sep 2017 14:58
Last Modified:23 Feb 2019 00:21

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