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System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches

Pietzcker, Robert Carl and Ueckerdt, Falko and de Boer, Harmen Sytze and Després, Jaques and Shinichiro, Fujimori and Johnson, Nils and Kitous, Alban and Scholz, Yvonne and Sullivan, P.P. and Luderer, Gunnar (2017) System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches. Energy Economics, 64, pp. 583-599. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018 ISSN 0140-9883

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Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988316303395


Mitigation-Process Integrated Assessment Models (MP-IAMs) are used to analyze long-term transformation pathways of the energy systemrequired to achieve stringent climate change mitigation targets. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent all detailed challenges of integrating the variable renewable energies (VRE) wind and solar in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modeling approaches. In the ADVANCE project, six international modeling teams have developed new approaches to improve the representation of power sector dynamics and VRE integration in IAMs. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the last years' modeling progress and study the impact of VRE integration modeling on VRE deployment in IAM scenarios. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation, we first develop a framework of 18 features of power sector dynamics and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly-developed modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs to the detailed hourly-resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of features of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement with those derived fromthe detailed power sectormodel. Updating the power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar substantially increased wind and solar shares across models: Under a carbon price of 30$/tCO2 in 2020 (increasing by 5% per year), the model-average cost-minimizing VRE share over the period 2050-2100 is 62% of electricity generation, 24%-points higher than with the old model version.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/112804/
Document Type:Article
Title:System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Pietzcker, Robert Carlpotsdam institute for climate impact research, potsdam, germanyUNSPECIFIED
de Boer, Harmen SytzePBLUNSPECIFIED
Després, JaquesUniversité de GrenobleUNSPECIFIED
Shinichiro, FujimoriNational Institute for Environmental Studies JapanUNSPECIFIED
Kitous, AlbanEuropean Commission JRCUNSPECIFIED
Scholz, Yvonneyvonne.scholz (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1633-3825
Sullivan, P.P.National renewable energy laboratory USAUNSPECIFIED
Luderer, Gunnarpotsdam institute for climate impact research, potsdam, germanyUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Energy Economics
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.018
Page Range:pp. 583-599
Keywords:Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) Wind and solar power System integration Power sector model Flexibility options (storage, transmission grid, demand response) Model evaluation Model validation
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics > Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Scholz, Yvonne
Deposited On:26 Jun 2017 10:19
Last Modified:26 Jun 2017 10:19

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