Empirical forecast of the quiet time Ionosphere over Europe: a comparative model investigation

Abstract

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio waves can be reflected, refracted and absorbed by electrically charged particles in the ionosphere - an atmospheric layer between about 75 and 1000 km above the Earth’s surface. This influencing of wave propagation can lead to disruptions in communicational and navigational applications. One major parameter that describes the state of the ionosphere is the total electron Content (TEC). The vertical TEC that is considered here is the integral of the electron density along a 1 m² vertical ray path between satellite and receiver. The quiet-time TEC depends on the solar radio flux, geographical latitude, local time and season. The purpose of this work is to compare four empirical models for a reliable 24 hour ahead forecast of the TEC over Europe under geomagnetically quiet conditions.