Hail statistics for Germany derived from single-polarization radar data

Abstract

Despite the considerable damage potential related to severe hailstorms, knowledge about the local hail probability in Germany is very limited. Constructing a reliable hail probabilitymap is challenging due largely to the lack of direct hail observations. In our study, we suggest a reasonable method by which to estimate hail signals from 3D radar reflectivity measured by conventional single-polarization radars between 2005 and 2011. Evaluating the radar-derived hail days with loss data from a building and an agricultural insurance company confirmed the reliability of the method and the results as expressed, for example, by a Heidke Skill Score HSS of 0.7. Overall, radar-derived hail days demonstrate very high spatial variability,which reflects the local-scale nature of deepmoist convection.Nonetheless, systematic patterns related to climatic conditions and orography can also be observed. On the large scale, the number of hail days substantially increases from north to south, which may plausibly be explained by the higher thermal instability in the south. At regional and local scales, several hot spots with elevated hail frequency can be identified, in most cases downstream of the mountains. Several other characteristics including convective energy related to the events identified, differences in track lengths, and seasonal cycles are discussed.