A logit model for shipment size choice with latent classes – Empirical findings for Germany

Abstract

Decisions on shipment size in freight transport are often seen to represent a whole set of logistics decisions made by shippers and recipients. Also, shipment sizes have a large impact on transport mode choice. Therefore, they are an important aspect in the modeling of freight transport demand, as they allow to display the reactions of various stakeholders on policy measures. In this article, a model for the discrete choice of shipment sizes is applied to interregional road freight transport. Preferences of actors are reflected by a total logistics cost expression. Furthermore, a Latent Class Analysis approach is applied to identify groups of transport cases with similar logistics requirements. The classification reduces significantly heterogeneity in behavior. Reactions of actors on external influences such as policy measures could be predicted more accurately.