Cb-LIKE - Cumulonimbus Likelihood: Thunderstorm forecasting with fuzzy logic

Kurzfassung

Aviation is heavily affected by thunderstorms. Approaching storm cells with accompanying effects such as heavy rain, hail or downdrafts cause delays and flight cancellations. Consequently, the airlines and airport operators have to bear high additional costs, with reduced flight safety and passenger comfort. A reliable thunderstorm forecast up to several hours ahead saves time for decision makers, as the airport authorities, air traffic control, airline operation centre, and the crew in the cockpit for an appropriate and harmonised reaction, and for mitigating the consequences of a thunderstorm. The algorithm Cb-LIKE (Cumulonimbus- Likelihood) has been developed to provide such forecasts.