The scope for low-cost connecting services in Europe — Is self-hubbing only the beginning?

Abstract

To comply with the simplicity principle of the archetypical low-cost carrier (LCC) business model, most LCCs do not actively offer connecting flights. Given the overall growth of the sector, more and more transfer opportunities between LCC flights have however emerged – albeit mostly as “self-hubbing” under the radar of airlines and airports. This paper assesses this transfer potential between LCC services in Europe over time, relative to the network of the full service network carriers (FSNCs). An SQL-based approach is applied to identify the number of marketable one-stop connections and airport-pairs from Official Airline Guide (OAG) schedules, considering pre-defined restrictions for connecting times and detour factors. The results indicate that the European LCC network now allows for about 162 k weekly one-stop connections, which is a big rise since 2006 but still far below the almost 725 k connections offered by the network carriers. At airport-pair level, though, the low-cost sector already comes relatively close to the network carriers (15.9 k vs. 25.3 k). The paper further identifies Barcelona, London Gatwick and London Stansted as largest potential transfer airports for low-cost connections and provides an overview of the most frequently served indirect airport-pairs. Finally, some operational and commercial restrictions are discussed that should be overcome to fully exploit the identified potential of flight connections between LCCs. This includes the questions of missed connections and baggage through-handling.