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Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network

Berling, Jan and Lau, Alexander and Gollnick, Volker (2016) Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn. Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress, 13.-15. Sept. 2016, Braunschweig, Deutschland.

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Official URL: http://publikationen.dglr.de/?tx_dglrpublications_pi1[document_id]=420157

Abstract

The complexity of European Air Traffic is accompanied by a continuous risk of conflicts between aircraft. In particular, inaccurate forecasts of aircraft positions prevent a fail-proof prediction of conflicts, especially for large look-ahead times. Uncertainty of departure times is one of the most important factors in trajectory prediction. Therefore, we compute strategic conflict probabilities between planned trajectories with stochastic departure times. First, potentially conflicted flight pairs are geometrically identified and further interpreted to gain critical periods of time in which conflicts would materialize with a given probability. Conflict probabilities of planned trajectories of a complete daily traffic sample are calculated. Results dissect the dependency of conflict probabilities on departure time deviations and on conflict geometry. Finally, an upper bound of strategic conflict reduction by strategic time shifts is computed.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/107280/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Berling, JanJan.Berling (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Lau, AlexanderAlexander.Lau (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Gollnick, VolkerVolker.Gollnick (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:21 October 2016
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Publisher:Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn
Status:Published
Keywords:air traffic management, conflict probabilities
Event Title:Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress
Event Location:Braunschweig, Deutschland
Event Type:national Conference
Event Dates:13.-15. Sept. 2016
Organizer:Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Air Traffic Concepts and Operation
Location: Hamburg
Institutes and Institutions:Air Transport Operations > Air Transport Infrastructures & Processes
Deposited By: Berling, Jan
Deposited On:20 Dec 2016 10:35
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:04

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