Berling, Jan and Lau, Alexander and Gollnick, Volker (2016) Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn. Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress, 2016-09-13 - 2016-09-15, Braunschweig, Deutschland.
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Official URL: http://publikationen.dglr.de/?tx_dglrpublications_pi1[document_id]=420157
Abstract
The complexity of European Air Traffic is accompanied by a continuous risk of conflicts between aircraft. In particular, inaccurate forecasts of aircraft positions prevent a fail-proof prediction of conflicts, especially for large look-ahead times. Uncertainty of departure times is one of the most important factors in trajectory prediction. Therefore, we compute strategic conflict probabilities between planned trajectories with stochastic departure times. First, potentially conflicted flight pairs are geometrically identified and further interpreted to gain critical periods of time in which conflicts would materialize with a given probability. Conflict probabilities of planned trajectories of a complete daily traffic sample are calculated. Results dissect the dependency of conflict probabilities on departure time deviations and on conflict geometry. Finally, an upper bound of strategic conflict reduction by strategic time shifts is computed.
Item URL in elib: | https://elib.dlr.de/107280/ | ||||||||||||||||
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Document Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Speech) | ||||||||||||||||
Title: | Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network | ||||||||||||||||
Authors: |
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Date: | 21 October 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
Refereed publication: | No | ||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Yes | ||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | No | ||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | No | ||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | No | ||||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn | ||||||||||||||||
Status: | Published | ||||||||||||||||
Keywords: | air traffic management, conflict probabilities | ||||||||||||||||
Event Title: | Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress | ||||||||||||||||
Event Location: | Braunschweig, Deutschland | ||||||||||||||||
Event Type: | national Conference | ||||||||||||||||
Event Start Date: | 13 September 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
Event End Date: | 15 September 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
Organizer: | Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Research field: | Aeronautics, Space and Transport | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Program: | Aeronautics | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Program Themes: | air traffic management and operations | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Research area: | Aeronautics | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Program: | L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Research theme (Project): | L - Air Traffic Concepts and Operation (old) | ||||||||||||||||
Location: | Hamburg | ||||||||||||||||
Institutes and Institutions: | Air Transport Operations > Air Transport Infrastructures & Processes | ||||||||||||||||
Deposited By: | Berling, Jan | ||||||||||||||||
Deposited On: | 20 Dec 2016 10:35 | ||||||||||||||||
Last Modified: | 24 Apr 2024 20:12 |
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