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A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY

Gelhausen, Marc and Berster, Peter and Wilken, Dieter (2016) A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY. Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference, 23.-26. Jun. 2016, Rhodes, Greece.

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Abstract

The DLR has developed and applied a “classical” model of forecasting the total number of air passengers and aircraft movements and the cargo volume at German airports for many years. The model follows the traditional approach of forecasting the trip generation, spatial distribution and assignment to routes and aircraft movements. In recent years it has been found more and more difficult to update and verify the model because of lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model, which directly forecasts the total number of air passengers and of air transport movements at the ensemble of German airports. The forecast functions are co-integrated structural regression models which have been econometrically estimated taking into account time series data of 1992 to 2014. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses advantages and disadvantages of the classical and new model approach.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/106575/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech, Other)
Title:A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Gelhausen, Marcmarc.gelhausen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Berster, Peterpeter.berster (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Wilken, Dieterdieter.wilken (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2016
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 1-20
Status:Published
Keywords:Air transport demand and supply forecasting; passenger and cargo demand and air transport movement model; classical four step model, co-integrated structural regression model
Event Title:Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference
Event Location:Rhodes, Greece
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:23.-26. Jun. 2016
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Research
Deposited By: Gelhausen, Marc
Deposited On:24 Oct 2016 11:49
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:03

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