A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY

Abstract

The DLR has developed and applied a “classical” model of forecasting the total number of air passengers and aircraft movements and the cargo volume at German airports for many years. The model follows the traditional approach of forecasting the trip generation, spatial distribution and assignment to routes and aircraft movements. In recent years it has been found more and more difficult to update and verify the model because of lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model, which directly forecasts the total number of air passengers and of air transport movements at the ensemble of German airports. The forecast functions are co-integrated structural regression models which have been econometrically estimated taking into account time series data of 1992 to 2014. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses advantages and disadvantages of the classical and new model approach.