Gelhausen, Marc und Berster, Peter und Wilken, Dieter (2016) A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY. Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference, 2016-06-23 - 2016-06-26, Rhodes, Greece.
![]() |
PDF
816kB |
Kurzfassung
The DLR has developed and applied a “classical” model of forecasting the total number of air passengers and aircraft movements and the cargo volume at German airports for many years. The model follows the traditional approach of forecasting the trip generation, spatial distribution and assignment to routes and aircraft movements. In recent years it has been found more and more difficult to update and verify the model because of lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model, which directly forecasts the total number of air passengers and of air transport movements at the ensemble of German airports. The forecast functions are co-integrated structural regression models which have been econometrically estimated taking into account time series data of 1992 to 2014. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses advantages and disadvantages of the classical and new model approach.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/106575/ | ||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dokumentart: | Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag, Anderer) | ||||||||||||||||
Titel: | A NEW MODEL OF LONG TERM FORECASTING AIR PASSENGER DEMAND AND THE NUMBER OF AIR TRANSPORT MOVEMENTS OF GERMANY | ||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
| ||||||||||||||||
Datum: | 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||
Seitenbereich: | Seiten 1-20 | ||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | Air transport demand and supply forecasting; passenger and cargo demand and air transport movement model; classical four step model, co-integrated structural regression model | ||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungstitel: | Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference | ||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsort: | Rhodes, Greece | ||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsart: | internationale Konferenz | ||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsbeginn: | 23 Juni 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsende: | 26 Juni 2016 | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | Verkehrssystem | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | V VS - Verkehrssystem | ||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (alt) | ||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Köln-Porz | ||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Flughafenwesen und Luftverkehr > Luftverkehrsforschung | ||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Gelhausen, Marc | ||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 24 Okt 2016 11:49 | ||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 24 Apr 2024 20:11 |
Nur für Mitarbeiter des Archivs: Kontrollseite des Eintrags