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Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction - Further Development and Probabilistic Assessment

Körner, Stephan and Holzäpfel, Frank (2016) Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction - Further Development and Probabilistic Assessment. In: AIAA Aviation. AIAA Aviation 2016, 13-17 Jun 2016, Washington D.C.. DOI: [10.2514/6.2016-3438]

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This paper investigates the capability of the Multi-Model Ensemble approach to improve both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of wake vortex behavior. Therefore the models D2P, APA 3.2, APA 3.4 and TDP 2.1 were provided within the framework of a NASA-DLR cooperation. In a previous study the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach, that computes the ensemble forecast as a weighted sum of PDDs, turned out to be promising. For this reason the focus of this paper lies on the further development and assessment of this method. While the previously presented approaches did not take into account that the error increases temporally, the new approach considers the growing uncertainties. For training and evaluation wake vortex campaigns accomplished by NASA (DFW97, MEM95) and DLR WakeMUC, WakeFRA, WakeOP) are employed.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/106222/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Lecture)
Title:Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction - Further Development and Probabilistic Assessment
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Date:June 2016
Journal or Publication Title:AIAA Aviation
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI :[10.2514/6.2016-3438]
Keywords:Wake vortices, Multi-Model Ensemble, Bayesian Model Averaging
Event Title:AIAA Aviation 2016
Event Location:Washington D.C.
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:13-17 Jun 2016
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Körner, Stephan
Deposited On:29 Sep 2016 10:57
Last Modified:29 Sep 2016 10:57

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