Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction - Further Development and Probabilistic Assessment

Kurzfassung

This paper investigates the capability of the Multi-Model Ensemble approach to improve both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of wake vortex behavior. Therefore the models D2P, APA 3.2, APA 3.4 and TDP 2.1 were provided within the framework of a NASA-DLR cooperation. In a previous study the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach, that computes the ensemble forecast as a weighted sum of PDDs, turned out to be promising. For this reason the focus of this paper lies on the further development and assessment of this method. While the previously presented approaches did not take into account that the error increases temporally, the new approach considers the growing uncertainties. For training and evaluation wake vortex campaigns accomplished by NASA (DFW97, MEM95) and DLR WakeMUC, WakeFRA, WakeOP) are employed.