The development of the potential for low-cost, one-stop connecting services in Europe – From self-hubbing to reliable low cost connecting services?

Abstract

To comply with the simplicity principle of the archetypical low cost carrier (LCC) business model, most LCC do not (yet) offer connecting flights. Nevertheless, due to the overall growth of the sector, more and more transfer opportunities between LCC flights have emerged – albeit mostly as “self-hubbing” under the radar of airlines and airports. These would however benefit from higher stimulated passenger numbers and revenues if the transfer potential between low cost services was exploited more aggressively. Complementing some earlier research, this paper aims at assessing the transfer potential between LCC services in Europe over time, relative to the network offered by the full service network carriers (FSNC), as well as its implications for passengers, carriers, airports and the travel distribution industry. After providing a review of air transport connectivity indicators and previous work on LCC transfer opportunities, we present an SQL-based approach for the identification of marketable one-stop connections from OAG schedules, considering pre-defined restrictions such as for connecting times and detour factors. For the years 2006 and 2015, we compare the one-stop connectivity provided by the LCC to that of the FSNC. We find that the European LCC network now allows for about 162,000 weekly one-stop connections. This is far more than in 2006 but still below the almost 725,000 connections offered by the network carriers. If airport pairs are counted, though, the low-cost sector already comes relatively close to the network carriers (15,900 vs. 25,300). We also identify the largest transfer airports for low-cost, one-stop connections, and provide an overview of the most frequently served indirect origin-destination (OD) markets. We close the paper in identifying the most fundamental operational and commercial restrictions that should be overcome to fully exploit the identified potential of flight connections between LCC. This includes the questions of missed connections and baggage through-handling.