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Bernoulli-Langevin wind Speed model for Simulation of storm events

Fürstenau, Norbert and Mittendorf, Monika (2016) Bernoulli-Langevin wind Speed model for Simulation of storm events. Zeitschrift für Naturforschung - Section A Journal of Physical Sciences. de Gruyter. ISSN 0932-0784

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Abstract

We present a simple nonlinear dynamics Langevin model for predicting the wind speed profile during storm events typically accompanying extreme low pressure situations. It is based on a 2nd degree Bernoulli equation with -correlated Gaussian noise. Transition between increasing and decreasing wind speed are formally described by the sign change of the controlling rate parameter or time constant. This approach is similar to a simplified laser model using a non-equilibrium 2nd-order phase transition analogy for the incoherent to coherent transition of light emission. The analytical solution of the Bernoulli model is successfully tested by fitting of two historical wind profiles (low pressure situations “Xaver” and “Christian”, 2013) taken from METAR weather data at Hamburg airport, with a logistic approximation to the dynamic model (i.e. with constant rate coefficients k). Simulations with the corresponding Bernoulli-Langevin equation with a time dependent sinusoidal rate ansatz k(t) of period T (= storm duration) and -correlated force according to empirical speed variance demonstrate the potential for realistic speed profile and time series modeling and prediction. Instationary speed fluctuations are estimated with a stationary Fokker-Planck approximation.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/104433/
Document Type:Article
Title:Bernoulli-Langevin wind Speed model for Simulation of storm events
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Fürstenau, Norbertnorbert.fuerstenau (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Mittendorf, Monikamonika.mittendorf (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2016
Journal or Publication Title:Zeitschrift für Naturforschung - Section A Journal of Physical Sciences
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Holthaus, MartinUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:de Gruyter
ISSN:0932-0784
Status:Published
Keywords:wind speed profile; storm event; nonlinear dynamics; Bernoulli equation; phase transition;
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Efficient Flight Guidance
Location: Braunschweig
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Flight Control > Controller Assistance
Deposited By: Fürstenau, Dr.phil.nat. Norbert
Deposited On:10 Jun 2016 17:07
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:39

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