Temporal displacement of take-off times if volcanic ash closed the airport

Kurzfassung

As the Eyjafjallajökull eruption 2010 and Grimsvötn eruption 2011 show, volcanic ash can have a tremendous impact on the air transport system. In case of an eruption the responsible volcanic ash advisory Center will issue volcanic ash advisories. Operationally distributed volcanic ash advisory forecasts cover a six hour period and the area in which ash particles are moving during this time. If a volcanic ash forecast includes an airport, the airport is enclosed for the entire six hours. Flights planned inside those time frames cannot take off or land. For Eyjafjallajökull 2010, the so affected flights represent up to 80% of cancellations on a severely affected day [1]. These are about 14 800 flights at one day. For Grimsvötn 2011, up to 62% of flights are cancelled because of closed departure for a simulation day [2]. In case of Grimsvötn, there is no difference between a six hour and an advanced one hour period volcanic ash forecast. The high number of cancelations originates from the extensive ash clouds. A reduction of affected flights especially for take-off and landing may be possible by displacement of the take-off times. Within the DLR project VolcATS – Volcanic ash impact on the Air Transport System – the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 is reprocessed. The volcanic ash forecasts are provided by the DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics. These are based on the three zone model for low (0.2 – 2 mg/m³), medium (between 2-4 mg/m³) and high (more than 4 mg/m³) concentrations specified by the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center London [3]. With the implemented simulation environment used in the project the impact on air traffic is examined. The impact of an increased delay on take-off times will be determined by varying maximum delay values in different simulations. To ensure a comparable demand of air traffic, original air traffic data from EUROCONTROL’s Demand Data Repository (DDR) are used for the selected simulation day. [1] Schmitt, Angela R. und Kuenz, Alexander (2015) A Reanalysis of Aviation Effects from Volcano Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. In: AIAA/IEEE Digital Avionics Systems Conference (34th DASC), 1B3-1-1B3-7. 13.-17. September 2015, Prag, Czech Republic. DOI: 10.1109/DASC.2015.7311335. ISBN 978-1-4799-8939-3. [2] Vujasinovic, Ruzica and Schmitt, Angela Rebecca and Zillies, Julia and Mollwitz, Vilmar and Edinger , Christiane and Kuenz, Alexander (2013) Optimization of the European air traffic during Grímsvötn eruption in 2011 based on advanced volcanic ash forecast. AIAA Aviation 2013, 12 - 14 August 2013, Los Angeles, USA. [3] VAAC London, "Changes to Ash Concentration Forecasts V12", March 2011, [Online]. Available: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/j/3/Changes_To_Ash__Concentration_Forecasts_V12web.pdf. [Accessed 2016-03-18].