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CHALLENGES IN APPLYING CALIBRATION METHODS TO TRAFFIC MODELS

Wagner, Peter and Buisson, Christine and Nippold, Ronald (2016) CHALLENGES IN APPLYING CALIBRATION METHODS TO TRAFFIC MODELS. Transportation Research Board. Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, 10.-14. Jan. 2016, Washington, DC, USA. (In Press)

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Abstract

This text looks at calibration and validation as a means to understand traffic flow models better. It concentrates on the car-following part of it and demonstrates that the calibration of stochastic models under certain circumstances can become very difficult. Three types of stochasticity are distinguished for microscopic traffic flow models: the one coming from noisy data, the one coming from the distribution of the parameters describing the driver’s behavior and the one coming from the model itself, when a noise component is added to a deterministic differential equation governing the vehicle’s movements. By using four sub models comprising four different noise terms and an identical deterministic part this text shows that a calibration with synthetic – and therefore reproducible – data can lead to awry results. Parameters fitted by the calibration procedure are significantly different for deterministic and stochastic models. The text makes the conclusion that the stochasticity is the reason why the parameter estimation of stochastic models fails sometimes. Up to now, the authors were, unfortunately, not able to propose a solution to cope with this intrinsic pitfall of genuine stochastic models.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/100532/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Additional Information:Paper wird auf der DVD der Konferenz veröffentlicht. Später wird noch geprüft, ob es auch in den TRR publiziert wird.
Title:CHALLENGES IN APPLYING CALIBRATION METHODS TO TRAFFIC MODELS
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Wagner, Peterpeter.wagner (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Buisson, ChristineIFSTTARUNSPECIFIED
Nippold, Ronaldronald.nippold (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:January 2016
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Publisher:Transportation Research Board
Status:In Press
Keywords:calibration of traffic flow models, micro-simulation, stochasticity
Event Title:Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting
Event Location:Washington, DC, USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:10.-14. Jan. 2016
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Traffic Management (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - I.MoVe (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transportation Systems > Traffic Management
Deposited By: Wagner, Dr. Peter
Deposited On:15 Dec 2015 10:01
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:57

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