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Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts

Kober, K. und Craig, C. und Keil, C. und Dörnbrack, A. (2012) Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, Seiten 755-768. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.939.

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Offizielle URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.939/pdf

Kurzfassung

A seamless prediction of convective precipitation for a continuous range of lead times from 0�8 h requires the application of different approaches. Here, a nowcasting method and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble are combined to provide probabilistic precipitation forecasts. For the nowcast, an existing deterministic extrapolation technique was modified by the local Lagrangian method to calculate the probability of exceeding a threshold value in radar reflectivity. Numerical forecasts were obtained from an experimental high-resolution ensemble that provides 20 different deterministic forecasts of synthetic radar reflectivity. Probabilistic information was calculated by different approaches from the ensemble output. The probabilistic forecasts based on the ensemble were calibrated with the reliability diagram statistics method. The skill of the probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts was evaluated using three quality measures. Finally, a seamless probabilistic forecast was generated as an additive combination of nowcast and forecast, using a weighting function based on their relative skills. The skill of the seamless forecast was greater than or equal to that of the nowcast or ensemble forecast in all quality measures and at all lead times.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Kober, K.LMU
Craig, C.DLR
Keil, C.LMU
Dörnbrack, A.DLR
Datum:2012
Erschienen in:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:138
DOI :10.1002/qj.939
Seitenbereich:Seiten 755-768
Verlag:American Meteorological Society
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:short-range forecasting; blending; ensemble prediction; forecast calibration
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt, Luftfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Erdbeobachtung, ATM und Flugbetrieb
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt, Luftfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R EO - Erdbeobachtung, L AO - Luftverkehrsmanagement und Flugbetrieb
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, L - Klima, Wetter und Umwelt
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Wolkenphysik und Verkehrsmeteorologie
Hinterlegt von: Jana Freund
Hinterlegt am:09 Nov 2011 16:25
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 21:24

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