Kober, Kirstin und Craig, George C. und Keil, Christian und Dörnbrack, Andreas (2012) Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, Seiten 755-768. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.939 ISSN 0035-9009
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Offizielle URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.939/pdf
Kurzfassung
A seamless prediction of convective precipitation for a continuous range of lead times from 0�8 h requires the application of different approaches. Here, a nowcasting method and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble are combined to provide probabilistic precipitation forecasts. For the nowcast, an existing deterministic extrapolation technique was modified by the local Lagrangian method to calculate the probability of exceeding a threshold value in radar reflectivity. Numerical forecasts were obtained from an experimental high-resolution ensemble that provides 20 different deterministic forecasts of synthetic radar reflectivity. Probabilistic information was calculated by different approaches from the ensemble output. The probabilistic forecasts based on the ensemble were calibrated with the reliability diagram statistics method. The skill of the probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts was evaluated using three quality measures. Finally, a seamless probabilistic forecast was generated as an additive combination of nowcast and forecast, using a weighting function based on their relative skills. The skill of the seamless forecast was greater than or equal to that of the nowcast or ensemble forecast in all quality measures and at all lead times.
Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | |||||||||||||||
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Titel: | Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts | |||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
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Datum: | 2012 | |||||||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society | |||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | |||||||||||||||
In Open Access: | Nein | |||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | |||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | |||||||||||||||
Band: | 138 | |||||||||||||||
DOI : | 10.1002/qj.939 | |||||||||||||||
Seitenbereich: | Seiten 755-768 | |||||||||||||||
Verlag: | American Meteorological Society | |||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0035-9009 | |||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | |||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | short-range forecasting; blending; ensemble prediction; forecast calibration | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Raumfahrt | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | Erdbeobachtung | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Raumfahrt | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | R EO - Erdbeobachtung | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, L - Klima, Wetter und Umwelt (alt) | |||||||||||||||
Standort: | Oberpfaffenhofen | |||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Wolkenphysik und Verkehrsmeteorologie | |||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Freund, Jana | |||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 09 Nov 2011 16:25 | |||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 27 Nov 2017 11:30 |
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