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Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts

Kober, K. and Craig, C. and Keil, C. and Dörnbrack, A. (2012) Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, pp. 755-768. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1002/qj.939.

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Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.939/pdf

Abstract

A seamless prediction of convective precipitation for a continuous range of lead times from 0�8 h requires the application of different approaches. Here, a nowcasting method and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble are combined to provide probabilistic precipitation forecasts. For the nowcast, an existing deterministic extrapolation technique was modified by the local Lagrangian method to calculate the probability of exceeding a threshold value in radar reflectivity. Numerical forecasts were obtained from an experimental high-resolution ensemble that provides 20 different deterministic forecasts of synthetic radar reflectivity. Probabilistic information was calculated by different approaches from the ensemble output. The probabilistic forecasts based on the ensemble were calibrated with the reliability diagram statistics method. The skill of the probabilistic nowcasts and forecasts was evaluated using three quality measures. Finally, a seamless probabilistic forecast was generated as an additive combination of nowcast and forecast, using a weighting function based on their relative skills. The skill of the seamless forecast was greater than or equal to that of the nowcast or ensemble forecast in all quality measures and at all lead times.

Document Type:Article
Title:Blending a probabilistic nowcasting method with a high-resolution numerical weather prediction ensemble for convective precipitation forecasts
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Kober, K.LMU
Craig, C.DLR
Keil, C.LMU
Dörnbrack, A.DLR
Date:2012
Journal or Publication Title:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:138
DOI:10.1002/qj.939
Page Range:pp. 755-768
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Status:Published
Keywords:short-range forecasting; blending; ensemble prediction; forecast calibration
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space, Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation, ATM and Operation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt, Aeronautics
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung, L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics and Traffic Meteorology
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:09 Nov 2011 16:25
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:24

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