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Integrated assessment of croplands soil carbon sensitivity to recent and future climate in the Elbe river catchment (central Europe)

Post, Joachim and Conradt, Tobias and Suckow, Felicitas and Krysanova, Valentina and Wechsung, Frank and Hattermann, Fred Fokko (2008) Integrated assessment of croplands soil carbon sensitivity to recent and future climate in the Elbe river catchment (central Europe). Hydrological Sciences Journal / Journal des sciences hydrologiques, 53 (5), pp. 1043-1059. ISSN 0262-6667.

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Abstract

Carbon storage in soils is sensitive to changing climatic conditions, potentially increasing C fluxes from soils to the atmosphere. This study provides an assessment of recent climate variability (1951–2000) and potential future (2001–2055) climate change impacts on soil C storage for croplands in the German part of the Elbe River basin. Results indicate that recently (1991–2000) croplands are a net source of carbon (net annual flux of 10.8 g C m-2 year-1 to the atmosphere). The recent temperature trend for the years 1951–2000 (+0.8 K in summer and +1.4 K in winter mean temperature) alone have already caused a significant net flux of 1.8 g C m-2 year-1 to the atmosphere. Future climate change (2001–2055) derived from regionalised meteorological properties driven by the IPCC-SRES A1 scenario results in an increased net C flux of an additional 4 g C m-2 year-1 in comparison to the reference period (1951–2000). Uncertainties attached to C flux results are estimated with a standard error of 6%. Besides climate-induced alteration of net C fluxes, considerable impacts on groundwater recharge (−45.7%), river flow (−43.2%) and crop yield (−11% to −15% as a basin-wide average for different cereals) were obtained. Recent past and expected temperature changes within the Elbe basin predominantly contribute to the increase of net C fluxes to the atmosphere. However, decreased crop growth (crop yields) and decreased expected water availability counteract even higher net C losses as soil C turnover is reduced through less C input (less crop growth) and drier soil conditions (decrease in water availability). Based on this study, present-day and potential future development of net C fluxes, water components and crop yields were quantified. This allows integrated assessment of different ecosystem services (C storage, water availability and crop yield) under climate change in river basins.

Document Type:Article
Title:Integrated assessment of croplands soil carbon sensitivity to recent and future climate in the Elbe river catchment (central Europe)
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Post, JoachimJoachim.Post@dlr.de
Conradt, TobiasPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Suckow, FelicitasPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Krysanova, ValentinaPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Wechsung, FrankPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hattermann, Fred FokkoPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Date:October 2008
Journal or Publication Title:Hydrological Sciences Journal / Journal des sciences hydrologiques
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:53
Page Range:pp. 1043-1059
ISSN:0262-6667
Status:Published
Keywords:integrated modelling; ecohydrological model; climate impact; soil carbon dynamics; C flux; croplands
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Zivile Kriseninformation und Georisiken
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Environment and Security
Deposited By: Dr.rer.nat. Joachim Post
Deposited On:16 Jan 2009
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:35

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