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Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Eyring, V. und Waugh, D.W. und Bodeker, G.E. und Cordero, E. und Akiyoshi, H. und Austin, J. und Beagley, S.R. und Boville, B. und Braesicke, P. und Brühl, C. und Butchart, N. und Chipperfield, M.P. und Dameris, M. und Deckert, R. und Deushi, M. und Frith, S.M. und Garcia, R.R. und Gettelman, A. und Giorgetta, M. und Kinnison, D.E. und Mancini, E. und Manzini, E. und Marsh, D.R. und Matthes, S. und Nagashima, T. und Newman, P.A. und Nielsen, J. E. und Pawson, S. und Pitari, G. und Plummer, D.A. und Rozanov, E. und Schraner, M. und Scinocca, J.F. und Semeniuk, K. und Shepherd, T.G. und Shibata, K. und Steil, B. und Stolarski, R. und Tian, W. und Yoshiki, M. (2007) Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (D16303), Seiten 1-24. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008332.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2007/2006JD008332.shtml

Kurzfassung

Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lowerstratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Eyring, V.NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Bodeker, G.E.National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, NZ
Cordero, E.San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA, USA
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Austin, J.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA
Beagley, S.R.York Univ., Toronto, CND
Boville, B.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Braesicke, P.Cambridge Univ., Cambridge, UK
Brühl, C.MPI, Mainz
Butchart, N.Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Dameris, M.NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Deckert, R.NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Deushi, M.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Frith, S.M.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USA
Garcia, R.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Gettelman, A.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Giorgetta, M.MPI, Hamburg
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Mancini, E.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, I
Manzini, E.CMCC, Bologna, I
Marsh, D.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Matthes, S.NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Nagashima, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Newman, P.A.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Nielsen, J. E.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USA
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pitari, G.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, I
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Rozanov, E.ETHZ, Davos, CH
Schraner, M.ETH Zurich, CH
Scinocca, J.F.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, CND
Semeniuk, K.York Univ., Toronto, CND
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, CND
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Steil, B.MPI, Mainz
Stolarski, R.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Yoshiki, M.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Datum:2007
Erschienen in:Journal of Geophysical Research
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:112
DOI :10.1029/2006JD008332
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1-24
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:chemistry-climate modeling, ozone recovery, stratosphere
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Jana Freund
Hinterlegt am:06 Sep 2007
Letzte Änderung:20 Okt 2014 14:31

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