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Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

Eyring, V. and Waugh, D.W. and Bodeker, G.E. and Cordero, E. and Akiyoshi, H. and Austin, J. and Beagley, S.R. and Boville, B. and Braesicke, P. and Brühl, C. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dameris, M. and Deckert, R. and Deushi, M. and Frith, S.M. and Garcia, R.R. and Gettelman, A. and Giorgetta, M. and Kinnison, D.E. and Mancini, E. and Manzini, E. and Marsh, D.R. and Matthes, S. and Nagashima, T. and Newman, P.A. and Nielsen, J. E. and Pawson, S. and Pitari, G. and Plummer, D.A. and Rozanov, E. and Schraner, M. and Scinocca, J.F. and Semeniuk, K. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Steil, B. and Stolarski, R. and Tian, W. and Yoshiki, M. (2007) Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 112 (D16303), pp. 1-24. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD008332.

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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2007/2006JD008332.shtml


Simulations from eleven coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) employing nearly identical forcings have been used to project the evolution of stratospheric ozone throughout the 21st century. The model-to-model agreement in projected temperature trends is good, and all CCMs predict continued, global mean cooling of the stratosphere over the next 5 decades, increasing from around 0.25 K/decade at 50 hPa to around 1 K/ decade at 1 hPa under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. In general, the simulated ozone evolution is mainly determined by decreases in halogen concentrations and continued cooling of the global stratosphere due to increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Column ozone is projected to increase as stratospheric halogen concentrations return to 1980s levels. Because of ozone increases in the middle and upper stratosphere due to GHGinduced cooling, total ozone averaged over midlatitudes, outside the polar regions, and globally, is projected to increase to 1980 values between 2035 and 2050 and before lowerstratospheric halogen amounts decrease to 1980 values. In the polar regions the CCMs simulate small temperature trends in the first and second half of the 21st century in midwinter. Differences in stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) among the CCMs are key to diagnosing the intermodel differences in simulated ozone recovery, in particular in the Antarctic. It is found that there are substantial quantitative differences in the simulated Cly, with the October mean Antarctic Cly peak value varying from less than 2 ppb to over 3.5 ppb in the CCMs, and the date at which the Cly returns to 1980 values varying from before 2030 to after 2050. There is a similar variation in the timing of recovery of Antarctic springtime column ozone back to 1980 values. As most models underestimate peak Cly near 2000, ozone recovery in the Antarctic could occur even later, between 2060 and 2070. In the Arctic the column ozone increase in spring does not follow halogen decreases as closely as in the Antarctic, reaching 1980 values before Arctic halogen amounts decrease

Document Type:Article
Title:Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Bodeker, G.E.National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, NZ
Cordero, E.San Jose State Univ., San Jose, CA, USA
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Austin, J.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA
Beagley, S.R.York Univ., Toronto, CND
Boville, B.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Braesicke, P.Cambridge Univ., Cambridge, UK
Brühl, C.MPI, Mainz
Butchart, N.Met Office Climate Research Division, Exeter, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Deushi, M.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Frith, S.M.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USA
Garcia, R.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Gettelman, A.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Giorgetta, M.MPI, Hamburg
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Mancini, E.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, I
Manzini, E.CMCC, Bologna, I
Marsh, D.R.NCAR Boulder, CO, USA
Nagashima, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Newman, P.A.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Nielsen, J. E.SSAI, Lanham, MD, USA
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pitari, G.Univ. L’Aquila, L’Aquila, I
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Rozanov, E.ETHZ, Davos, CH
Schraner, M.ETH Zurich, CH
Scinocca, J.F.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, CND
Semeniuk, K.York Univ., Toronto, CND
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, CND
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Steil, B.MPI, Mainz
Stolarski, R.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Yoshiki, M.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1-24
Keywords:chemistry-climate modeling, ozone recovery, stratosphere
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:06 Sep 2007
Last Modified:20 Oct 2014 14:31

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