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Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past

Eyring, Veronika und Butchart, Neal und Waugh, Darryn W. und Akiyoshi, Hideharu und Austin, John und Bekki, Slimane und Bodeker, Greg E. und Boville, Byron A. und Brühl, Christoph und Chipperfield, Martyn P. und Cordero, Eugene und Dameris, Martin und Deushi, Makoto und Fioletov, Vitali E. und Frith, Stacey M. und Garcia, Rolando R. und Gettelman, Andrew und Giorgetta, Marco A. und Grewe, Volker und Jourdain, Line und Kinnison, Doug E. und Mancini, Eva und Manzini, Elisa und Marchand, Marion und Marsh, Daniel R. und Nagashima, Tatsuya und Nielsen, Eric und Newman, Paul A. und Pawson, Steven und Pitari, Giovanni und Plummer, David A. und Rozanov, Eugene und Schraner, Martin und Shepherd, Theodore G. und Shibata, Kiyotaka und Stolarski, Richard S. und Struthers, Hamish und Tian, Wenshou und Yoshiki, Motoyoshi (2006) Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D22308. DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007327.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006JD007327.shtml

Kurzfassung

Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Eyring, VeronikaNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Butchart, NealMetOffice, Exeter, UK
Waugh, Darryn W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Akiyoshi, HideharuNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Austin, JohnNOAA GFDL, Princeton, USA
Bekki, SlimaneService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, Paris, F
Bodeker, Greg E.NIWA, Lauder, NZ
Boville, Byron A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Brühl, ChristophMPI für Chemie, Mainz
Chipperfield, Martyn P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Cordero, EugeneSan José State Univ., San José, CA, USA
Dameris, MartinNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Deushi, MakotoMeteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Fioletov, Vitali E.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Frith, Stacey M.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Garcia, Rolando R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Gettelman, AndrewNCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Giorgetta, Marco A.MPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg
Grewe, VolkerNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Jourdain, LineService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, F
Kinnison, Doug E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Mancini, EvaDipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, I
Manzini, ElisaIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, I
Marchand, MarionService d'Aeronomie du CNRS, F
Marsh, Daniel R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Nagashima, TatsuyaNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Nielsen, EricNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Newman, Paul A.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pawson, StevenNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pitari, GiovanniUniv. L'Aquila, Dipartimento di Fisica, L'Aquila, I
Plummer, David A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Rozanov, EugenePhysical-Meteorological Observatory, Davos, CH
Schraner, MartinETH, Zürich, CH
Shepherd, Theodore G.Univ. of Toronto, CND
Shibata, KiyotakaMeteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, Japan.
Stolarski, Richard S.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Struthers, HamishNIWA, Lauder, NZ
Tian, WenshouUniv. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Yoshiki, MotoyoshiNational Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Datum:23 November 2006
Erschienen in:Journal of Geophysical Research
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:111
DOI :10.1029/2006JD007327
Seitenbereich:D22308
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:chemistry-climate modeling; stratospheric ozone and climate; model evaluation
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: PD Dr. habil. Veronika Eyring
Hinterlegt am:20 Apr 2007
Letzte Änderung:11 Nov 2014 21:56

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