Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past
Eyring, Veronika and Butchart, Neal and Waugh, Darryn W. and Akiyoshi, Hideharu and Austin, John and Bekki, Slimane and Bodeker, Greg E. and Boville, Byron A. and Brühl, Christoph and Chipperfield, Martyn P. and Cordero, Eugene and Dameris, Martin and Deushi, Makoto and Fioletov, Vitali E. and Frith, Stacey M. and Garcia, Rolando R. and Gettelman, Andrew and Giorgetta, Marco A. and Grewe, Volker and Jourdain, Line and Kinnison, Doug E. and Mancini, Eva and Manzini, Elisa and Marchand, Marion and Marsh, Daniel R. and Nagashima, Tatsuya and Nielsen, Eric and Newman, Paul A. and Pawson, Steven and Pitari, Giovanni and Plummer, David A. and Rozanov, Eugene and Schraner, Martin and Shepherd, Theodore G. and Shibata, Kiyotaka and Stolarski, Richard S. and Struthers, Hamish and Tian, Wenshou and Yoshiki, Motoyoshi (2006) Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, . DOI: 10.1029/2006JD007327.
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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006JD007327.shtml
Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total ozone trends and variability on a global scale, but a greater spread in the ozone trends in polar regions in spring, especially in the Arctic. In conclusion, despite the wide range of skills in representing different processes assessed here, there is sufficient agreement between the majority of the CCMs and the observations that some confidence can be placed in their predictions.
|Title:||Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past|
|Date:||23 November 2006|
|Journal or Publication Title:||Journal of Geophysical Research|
|In ISI Web of Science:||Yes|
|Keywords:||chemistry-climate modeling; stratospheric ozone and climate; model evaluation|
|HGF - Research field:||Aeronautics, Space and Transport|
|HGF - Program:||Space|
|HGF - Program Themes:||W EO - Erdbeobachtung|
|DLR - Research area:||Space|
|DLR - Program:||W EO - Erdbeobachtung|
|DLR - Research theme (Project):||W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)|
|Institutes and Institutions:||Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics|
|Deposited By:||PD Dr. habil. Veronika Eyring|
|Deposited On:||20 Apr 2007|
|Last Modified:||27 Apr 2009 13:16|
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