On the application ELECTRE III to the analysis of rail freight options: Advances in assessing the sensitivity of rankings.

Kurzfassung

This paper explores the application of the ELECTRE III multicriteria decision-making tool to evaluate alternative policy strategies for promoting seamless freight transport along a rail corridor connecting the Nordic region with Central and Southeastern Europe. ELECTRE III is based on successive pairwise comparisons of two alternatives to establish outranking relations with respect to a pre-determined set of criteria. Among the advantages of the method is its flexibility in: (1) simultaneously incorporating both quantitative (e.g. monetized) and qualitative outcome indicators; (2) handling uncertainty in the data; and (3) allowing for indifference, preference and veto thresholds with respect to each of the indicators. We explore these advantages through an analysis that focuses on the economic, social, and environmental effects that would emerge from a rebalancing of freight traffic from road to rail. The paper moves beyond the existing literature on ELECTRE III in two respects. First, we develop an automated tool that allows the analyst to systematically vary key parameters (e.g. preference weights) and thereby test the sensitivity of the results. Second, we demonstrate how the findings of the sensitivity analysis can be presented by means of an intuitive graphical depiction of shifts in the rankings that can be readily interpreted by decision-makers. As the research for this paper is conducted under the auspices of a recently launched international consortium, REORIENT, which is funded by the European Commission, we are currently reliant on the use of hypothetical data to demonstrate the results.