The sustainable agricultural land potential for energy crop production in Germany and Poland

Kurzfassung

Biomass is broadly applicable in the energy sector for power, heat and transport, but it is strongly restricted by its availability. If biomass is supposed to contribute to a more sustainable energy system, its limited potential needs to be respected. Especially energy crops are in heavy competition with food and fi ber production, nature conservation and construction activity. This paper presents a model HEKTOR which helps to analyse the interdependencies between these various land uses. HEKTOR is a scenario tool that provides insight in the availability of agricultural land for the production of energy crops under sustainability restrictions on a national level. The model was applied to Poland and Germany. Two scenarios are presented: A ‘business-as-usual’ scenario is compared to a ‘sustainability’ scenario. On the one hand, the model quantifi es the confl ict of objectives between enhanced extensifi cation in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand, the synergies in restricting construction activity are assessed. Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from energy crops is strongly restricted for Germany compared to its energy demand whereas in Poland domestic agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. Still, strong interdependencies with other land use are found. For energy crops to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its infl uence on the food markets must be considered more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.