Assessment of Evaluation Methods for Space Technology Concepts

Kurzfassung

This paper identifies, analyses and appraises a range of technology evaluation methods for their applicability in evaluating space technologies concepts. Evaluation methods are mostly used to support and enhance decisions regarding investments in technology development projects. Examples of evaluation methods include: Delphi Method, S-Curve Extrapolation, Decision Trees, Analogy- and Patent Analysis and many others. The paper identifies methods which are most suitable for evaluating space technologies in order to improve investment decisions in the space sector. Investments in space technologies can be categorized according to a mission-focused (“pull”) and transformational (“push”) influenced decisions. Especially the push technology investments require a great deal of strategic planning, as their time horizon is longer than that of pull investments. Because of the presence of breakthrough innovations (also named Game Changing Technologies or Disruptive Space Technologies), the need for the usage of the most accurate evaluation methods is apparent. In literature many evaluation methods exist, however these methods are just partially applicable to the space sector, because of its different market dynamics. This difference causes the factors influencing the diffusion of innovations (agents’ decision-making process, the product characteristics and the structure of interactions between agents) to be different from the non-space sector. For example, because of a relative low frequency of space technology usage, the method of extrapolating trends is deemed impractical for evaluating space technology concepts. This paper identifies which factors influence the effectiveness of evaluation methods within the space market structure and assesses which methods show the highest potential to be an accurate tool for space technology investment decisions. The application of the results of this paper will lead to more informed investment decisions and thus, improvement of the technological capabilities of the space sector as a whole.