Untersuchung von Netzwerkeffekten bei der Migration von ETCS als neue Zugbeeinflussung

Kurzfassung

The European Train Control System (ETCS) as a part of the European Railway Traffic Management System (ERTMS) is being developed to harmonize the different national train protection systems existing in Europe. In order to integrate this system several migration strategies have been designed and validated in terms of migration costs and migration time. This validation can be complemented by insights gained by the analysis of network effects taken from the field of network economics. The main question is how migration strategies can be optimized using possibilities given by direct network effects. It can be shown that lock-in effects, switching costs and the critical mass which are described in network economics are easily transferable to the migration of ETCS. Lock-in effects, for example, describe the barriers concerning a change of technology and their degree can be determined by the switching costs. The critical mass can outline the time when ETCS should be adopted by the market and the benefits of interoperability will be realized. The critical mass can be given as a ratio which’s value is conforming to the value of the critical mass at a certain height. In addition it is possible to assess the time required for reaching the critical mass with this ratio. Considering the critical mass the migration process can be devided into four phases. This division is based on the number of participat-ing train companies with certain characteristic at a given point in time. In each phase it is possible to suggest explicit measures to enhance existing network effects which reduce the required time to reach the critical mass.