Policy driven demand for sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles in Germany

Kurzfassung

While technology issues are increasingly overcoming, the economic viability of electric vehicles is remaining constrained by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first automakers present their Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or at least pronounce them for the near future. Hence, there is an emerging need for vehicle manufacturers, practitioners and policy to estimate the particular demand for partly and fully electrified drive trains under the current and probable future economic and regulatory conditions. In our paper we analyze the possible German car market’s development towards electric mobility for the two key technologies, PHEV and BEV. A multi-step methodology using technical, social and economic constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory is developed to derive demand for electric vehicles between 2015 and 2030. A scenario approach is used to demonstrate the impact of several policy approaches on demand for cars with electric drive trains in Germany. The results can provide valuable insights for policy design as well as for transport and environmental modelling at the same time.