HISTORICAL TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION OF SPACE SYSTEMS WITH SPECIAL REGARD TOWARDS SUBSYSTEMS

Kurzfassung

Since the launch of Sputnik in 1957, thousands of satellites and space probes have been sent into space. The typical spacecraft subsystems were subject of steady technology improvements during the last five decades, which led to many changes in design and layout. Darwin taught us that biological systems adapt and improve by a process of natural selection, known to us as evolution. The question rises if similar forces lead to an evolution within the technical world of spacecraft engineering. Can technical systems evolve over time so that one can call it technology evolution? Influences like technology S-curves, trend analysis, disruptive technology innovations, technology maps, space system failure studies and different subsystem development ratios are only a few factors that need to be considered in order to answer the question. The results presented in this Bachelor Thesis are based on the intensive research and analysis of a specially created database, fed from several (smaller) databases containing technical specifications (mass & power budgets), of hundreds of spacecraft, reports, as well as from interviews and personal correspondence with experts. The raw data was sorted concerning a classification system (e.g. earth observation satellite, deep space probes, surface rover and human spaceflight) and then analysed with different regression and correlation algorithms in order to reveal specific trends of a spacecraft‟s subsystem as a function of time. Strong correlations between several subsystems, overall increase of relative propulsion and thermal control subsystem masses, as well as decreasing relative power, communication and attitude control subsystem masses could be observed. Analysing the evolution of spacecraft systems has two main purposes: To give technical guidance for future spacecraft designs (performed e.g. in Concurrent Engineering studies) as well as to establish a system to evaluate, which technologies are worth investing in, depending on their overall technology maturity. The Bachelor Thesis was prepared within the Department of System Analysis Space Segment at the Institute of Space Systems (German Aerospace Center - DLR) in cooperation with the Bremen University of Applied Sciences.