Forster, Caroline und Tafferner, Arnold und Zinner, Tobias und Keil, Christian (2008) Validation of severe weather forecasts based on synthetic satellite data as part of an integrated thunderstorm forecast system. EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, 2008-09-08 - 2008-09-12, Darmstadt.
![]()
|
PDF
886kB |
Offizielle URL: http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Publications/Conference_and_Workshop_Proceedings/SP_1228987324620?l=en
Kurzfassung
This paper presents on-going work on a new tool that validates severe weather forecasts based on synthetic satellite data against satellite observations. The algorithm Cb-TRAM is used for tracking and monitoring objects of severe convection both in observed satellite imagery from METEOSAT SEVIRI and in synthetic satellite images forecasted by the German Weather Service (DWD) COSMO-DE model. Objects are defined by the area where convection is detected based on certain thresholds in Cb-TRAM, together with the vertical extent of the cloud cell. The validation tool compares size, displacement, overlap, intensity distribution and history of the observed and forecasted objects and thereby assesses the quality of the forecast. The functioning of the method is demonstrated for case studies of severe thunderstorms. If several forecasts of one object are available (e.g. from an ensemble forecast), this method enables the selection of the forecast that agrees best with the observation and that could then be used to estimate the future thunderstorm evolution. In particular, this method has the potential to close the gap between nowcasting and forecasting. It is part of an integrated thunderstorm forecast system for air traffic named WxFUSION (Weather Forecast User Oriented System Including Object Nowcasting) which is currently under development within the framework of the DLR project “Wetter und Fliegen”, in close collaboration with the DWD.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/56345/ | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dokumentart: | Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Titel: | Validation of severe weather forecasts based on synthetic satellite data as part of an integrated thunderstorm forecast system | ||||||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Datum: | 9 September 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | weather hazards, satellite nowcasting, forecasting, thunderstorms, Wetter und Fliegen, COSMO-DE model | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungstitel: | EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsort: | Darmstadt | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsart: | internationale Konferenz | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsbeginn: | 8 September 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstaltungsende: | 12 September 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Veranstalter : | EUMETSAT | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | L VU - Luftverkehr und Umwelt (alt) | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Luftfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | L VU - Luftverkehr und Umwelt | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | L - Luftverkehr und Wetter (alt) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Wolkenphysik und Verkehrsmeteorologie | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Forster, Dr. Caroline | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 26 Nov 2008 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 24 Apr 2024 19:20 |
Nur für Mitarbeiter des Archivs: Kontrollseite des Eintrags