QUANTIFY: Quantifying the Climate Impact of Global and European Transport Systems

Kurzfassung

The transport sector is a mayor emitter of anthropogenic CO2. The annual growth rate of transport-related greenhouse gas emissions is larger than for other mature industrial sectors. Additionally, the impact of the transport sector on climate is complex and is mediated through more than just the list of gases in the Kyoto Protocol: (1) by direct emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, but also N2O and others; (2) by emissions of indirect greenhouse gases, i.e., precursors of ozone, such as NOx, CO or volatile organic compounds (VOC); (3) by emissions of aerosols or their precursors, in particular black carbon and SO2, which are directly and indirectly (via cloud formation and cloud modification) radiatively and chemically active; (4) by directly triggering additional clouds due to water vapour emissions (e.g., contrails, contrail cirrus). The Integrated Project QUANTIFY aims at a quantification of the climate impact of global and European transport systems for the present situation and for several scenarios of future development. This is done for the whole chain from emissions to climate change. In particular, the following topics in the chain of impacts are considered: emission inventories, regional dilution and processing (including "effective emission indices"), large-scale chemistry and aerosol effects, cloud processes (including contrails, contrail cirrus and ship tracks), radiative forcing, and eventually climate change. Additionally, metrics that short-cut the path from emissions to climate change and climate impacts are considered. An overview of QUANTIFY will be presented, comprising the status after 15 months of the finding obtained in the Integrated Project by a consortium of 35 participants from Europe and the USA. Eventually the QUANTIFY results will lead via the Specific Support Action ATTICA to an Assessment Report of the Impact of Transport on the composition of the global atmosphere and on climate.